Upset Brief · NC-06 · Cyril Jefferson (D) vs. Addison McDowell (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 6.8-point national wave.

2%
odds today
17%
odds with the plan
35,565
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 15
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 02-09 (Cabarrus County)
    Starting line Jefferson +26. 8.8% split their ticket. About 2,311 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +396
  2. 02
    G48 (Guilford County)
    Starting line Jefferson +69. 5.3% split their ticket. About 1,018 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +282
  3. 03
    Fr1 (Guilford County)
    Starting line Jefferson +36. 7.6% split their ticket. About 1,375 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +248
  4. 04
    Arcadia 04 (Davidson County)
    Starting line McDowell +37. 12.7% split their ticket.
    +232
  5. 05
    Wallburg 80A (Davidson County)
    Starting line McDowell +54. 13.6% split their ticket.
    +230
  6. 06
    G50 (Guilford County)
    Starting line Jefferson +60. 3.3% split their ticket. About 1,042 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +229

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    12,829 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McDowell today.
    +12,829
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 40,879 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jefferson's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,929
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jefferson's way.
    +779

Plus a national shift of 6.8 points of margin (17,028 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Jefferson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McDowell.
  2. In G48 (Guilford County) and G50 (Guilford County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 6.8 points toward Jefferson's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    195 precincts, R² 0.998, 27 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,913 to 13,038 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Jefferson $13,898 cash on hand; McDowell $381,728.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    47,446 households, 142,339 dials, about 7,459 live conversations: an estimated $13,503 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $13,503 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.