North Carolina · U.S. House · District 6 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Cyril Jefferson.

McDowell starts 14.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 18,537 net votes toward Jefferson, a 7.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 6.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Jefferson the one standing if one comes.

35,565

net votes between Jefferson and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 15.

14.2 pts

McDowell lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 6.8-point national wave.

Odds today2%

Odds with the plan17%

Net votes to find35,565

WherePrecinct 02-09 (Cabarrus County), G48 (Guilford County), Fr1 (Guilford County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: McDowell +14.2. Cyril Jefferson needs 35,565 net votes. Odds 2% today, 17% with the plan.

The number

125,014 votes.

That is half of the 250,027 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Jefferson stands today, and what is missing:

104,686 Cyril Jefferson baseline

140,251 Addison McDowell baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Governor in 2024, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

2% today. 17% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Jefferson wins in

17%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Jefferson short by 17,099.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

13K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 12,829

Who. 12,829 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McDowell today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Jefferson needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning McDowell.

Mobilize

4,929

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 40,879

Who. At least 40,879 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jefferson's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

779

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,226

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jefferson's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 18,537 net votes against a gap of 35,565. Still 17,028 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 6.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 15% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 02-09 (Cabarrus County)mobilize
Starting line Jefferson +26. 8.8% split their ticket. About 2,311 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+396
02
G48 (Guilford County)mobilize
Starting line Jefferson +69. 5.3% split their ticket. About 1,018 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+282
03
Fr1 (Guilford County)mobilize
Starting line Jefferson +36. 7.6% split their ticket. About 1,375 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+248
04
Arcadia 04 (Davidson County)persuade
Starting line McDowell +37. 12.7% split their ticket.
+232
05
Wallburg 80A (Davidson County)persuade
Starting line McDowell +54. 13.6% split their ticket.
+230
06
G50 (Guilford County)mobilize
Starting line Jefferson +60. 3.3% split their ticket. About 1,042 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+229
07
West Arcadia 84 (Davidson County)persuade
Starting line McDowell +35. 12.4% split their ticket.
+222
08
Precinct 12-13 (Cabarrus County)mobilize
Starting line Jefferson +49. 4.9% split their ticket. About 1,082 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+221
09
Sdri (Guilford County)persuade
Starting line McDowell +1. 11.0% split their ticket.
+212
10
G64 (Guilford County)mobilize
Starting line Jefferson +54. 3.8% split their ticket. About 998 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+205
11
H10 (Guilford County)mobilize
Starting line Jefferson +69. 2.8% split their ticket. About 715 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+189
12
Precinct 02-08 (Cabarrus County)persuade
Starting line Jefferson +11. 9.4% split their ticket.
+189

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 02-09 (Cabarrus County) carries the most.

Precinct 02-09 (Cabarrus County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 396. It sits at Jefferson +26 on our starting line, and 8.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

G48 (Guilford County) is a turnout race.

Jefferson's side leads G48 (Guilford County) by about 69 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,018 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 239 votes there.

Wallburg 80A (Davidson County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Wallburg 80A (Davidson County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 13.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, McDowell had $382K in cash on hand to Jefferson's $14K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Jefferson's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 195
Slope: 0.967
R²: 0.998
Residual SD: 1.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 27

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Jefferson's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 15.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Jefferson, with McDowell, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 14
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 12,829 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 15 to 24
Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 40,879 of them live where Jefferson is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 17.1 points; Stein carried the 2024 governor's race by 3.0 points; Budd carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 19.9 points.

Jefferson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McDowell.
In G48 (Guilford County) and G50 (Guilford County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 6.8 points toward Jefferson's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

7,459 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 142,339 dials to 47,446 households, before the last ballot is cast.

47K

households on the target list

142K

dials across three attempts

7,459

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $13,503 at our published rates: 47,446 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Cyril Jefferson (D)

Mayor of High Point since his election in November 2023, the first Black man elected mayor of the city, and previously a High Point City Council member for Ward 1. A former teacher and band director at T.W. Andrews High School, he studied at North Carolina A&T State University and High Point University.

Cash on hand $13,898 and $199,881 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Addison McDowell (R)

U.S. representative for the 6th District since 2025, raised in Lexington and a 2016 political science graduate of UNC Charlotte. He previously worked in constituent services for then-Rep. Ted Budd and in government affairs for Blue Cross Blue Shield of North Carolina.

Cash on hand $381,728 and $1,226,408 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: McDowell +14.2. Cyril Jefferson needs 35,565 net votes. Odds 2% today, 17% with the plan.

Questions

Can Cyril Jefferson win North Carolina's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 18,537 net votes; the gap is 35,565. The rest would take a 6.8-point national shift.

Where are the votes Cyril Jefferson needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 02-09 (Cabarrus County), G48 (Guilford County), Fr1 (Guilford County), Arcadia 04 (Davidson County), Wallburg 80A (Davidson County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Cyril Jefferson need to persuade?

About 6,414 voters who lean Addison McDowell today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 12,829 persuadable voters leaning Addison McDowell.

When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?

One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.