Upset Brief · NC-08 · Colby Watson (D) vs. Mark Harris (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.1-point national wave.

1%
odds today
8%
odds with the plan
41,523
net votes to find
Mark Harris won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County)
    Starting line Watson +14. 10.0% split their ticket. About 1,965 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +307
  2. 02
    Precinct 01-04 (Cabarrus County)
    Starting line Watson +15. 8.2% split their ticket. About 1,784 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +237
  3. 03
    Precinct 137 (Mecklenburg County)
    Starting line Watson +5. 11.5% split their ticket.
    +230
  4. 04
    Precinct 091 (Mecklenburg County)
    Starting line Watson +13. 10.9% split their ticket. About 939 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +222
  5. 05
    Precinct 216 (Mecklenburg County)
    Starting line Watson +15. 8.5% split their ticket. About 1,364 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +193
  6. 06
    Precinct 233 (Mecklenburg County)
    Starting line Watson +9. 11.6% split their ticket.
    +192

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    12,081 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Harris today.
    +12,081
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 23,344 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Watson's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,498
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Watson's way.
    +744

Plus a national shift of 10.1 points of margin (27,200 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Watson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Harris.
  2. In Wadesboro (Anson County) and Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 10.1 points toward Watson's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    199 precincts, R² 0.996, 32 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -59,242 to 4,761 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Watson $2,343 cash on hand; Harris $517,853.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    34,245 households, 102,735 dials, about 5,383 live conversations: an estimated $11,023 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $11,023 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.