North Carolina · U.S. House · District 8 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Colby Watson.

Harris starts 15.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 14,491 net votes toward Watson, a 5.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 10.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Watson the one standing if one comes.

42,369

net votes between Watson and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 15.

15.6 pts

Harris lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.2-point national wave.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan8%

Net votes to find42,369

WherePrecinct 227 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 01-04 (Cabarrus County), Precinct 137 (Mecklenburg County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Harris +15.6. Colby Watson needs 42,369 net votes. Odds 1% today, 8% with the plan.

The number

136,247 votes.

That is half of the 272,492 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Watson stands today, and what is missing:

112,565 Colby Watson baseline

154,934 Mark Harris baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Governor in 2024, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. 8% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Watson wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Watson short by 27,853.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

12K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 12,253

Who. 12,253 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Harris today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Watson needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Harris.

Mobilize

1,485

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 23,194

Who. At least 23,194 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Watson's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

753

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,152

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Watson's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 14,491 net votes against a gap of 42,369. Still 27,878 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 10.2 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 17% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Watson +14. 10.0% split their ticket. About 1,965 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+307
02
Precinct 01-04 (Cabarrus County)persuade
Starting line Watson +15. 8.2% split their ticket. About 1,784 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+237
03
Precinct 137 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Watson +5. 11.5% split their ticket.
+230
04
Precinct 091 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Watson +13. 10.9% split their ticket. About 939 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+222
05
Sandy Ridge Elementary School (Union County)persuade
Starting line Harris +9. 11.1% split their ticket.
+194
06
Precinct 216 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Watson +15. 8.5% split their ticket. About 1,364 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+193
07
Precinct 233 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Watson +9. 11.6% split their ticket.
+192
08
Wadesboro (Anson County)mobilize
Starting line Watson +22. 5.7% split their ticket. About 1,489 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+189
09
Precinct 069 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Watson +11. 11.9% split their ticket.
+188
10
Precinct 019 (Union County)persuade
Starting line Harris +22. 9.1% split their ticket.
+183
11
Precinct 01-08 (Cabarrus County)persuade
Starting line Watson +15. 6.9% split their ticket. About 1,821 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+182
12
Siler Presbyterian Church (Union County)persuade
Starting line Harris +19. 11.4% split their ticket.
+175

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County) carries the most.

Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 307. It sits at Watson +14 on our starting line, and 10.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Wadesboro (Anson County) is a turnout race.

Watson's side leads Wadesboro (Anson County) by about 22 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,489 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 110 votes there.

Precinct 069 (Mecklenburg County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 069 (Mecklenburg County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 11.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Harris had $518K in cash on hand to Watson's $2,343. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Watson's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 199
Slope: 0.977
R²: 0.996
Residual SD: 1.7 pts
Crossover precincts: 32

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Watson's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 15.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Watson, with Harris, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 14
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 12,253 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 15 to 24
Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 23,194 of them live where Watson is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 19.3 points; Robinson carried the 2024 governor's race by 1.6 points; Budd carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 20.2 points.

Watson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Harris.
In Wadesboro (Anson County) and Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 10.2 points toward Watson's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

5,407 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 103,195 dials to 34,398 households, before the last ballot is cast.

34K

households on the target list

103K

dials across three attempts

5,407

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $11,073 at our published rates: 34,398 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Colby Watson (D)

A Union County small business owner who works in federal contracting. Born in Indian Trail and homeschooled, he lives in Monroe.

Cash on hand $2,343 and $39,569 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Mark Harris (R)

U.S. representative for the 8th District since 2025 and a Baptist pastor who led First Baptist Church of Charlotte and served as president of the Baptist State Convention of North Carolina. He holds a political science degree from Appalachian State University (1987) and a Master of Divinity and doctorate from Southeastern Baptist Theological Seminary.

Cash on hand $517,853 and $1,019,134 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Bo Whitehead (G)

A Charlotte warehouse supervisor who grew up on a small family farm in Georgia and has worked in hazardous chemical transport, logistics and loss prevention.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Harris +15.6. Colby Watson needs 42,369 net votes. Odds 1% today, 8% with the plan.

Questions

Can Colby Watson win North Carolina's 8th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 14,491 net votes; the gap is 42,369. The rest would take a 10.2-point national shift.

Where are the votes Colby Watson needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 01-04 (Cabarrus County), Precinct 137 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 091 (Mecklenburg County), Sandy Ridge Elementary School (Union County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Colby Watson need to persuade?

About 6,126 voters who lean Mark Harris today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 12,253 persuadable voters leaning Mark Harris.

When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?

One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.