What it would have taken for Colby Watson.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Harris starts 15.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 14,323 net votes toward Watson, a 5.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 10.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Watson the one standing if one comes.
Mark Harris won.
Colby Watson ran 13.7 points ahead of our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.1-point national wave.
134,374 votes.
That is half of the 268,746 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Watson stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Governor in 2024, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
1% today. 8% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 12,081 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Harris today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Watson needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Harris.
Who. At least 23,344 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Watson's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Watson's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 14,323 net votes against a gap of 41,523. Still 27,200 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 10.1 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 17% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+307Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County)persuadeStarting line Watson +14. 10.0% split their ticket. About 1,965 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+237Precinct 01-04 (Cabarrus County)persuadeStarting line Watson +15. 8.2% split their ticket. About 1,784 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+230Precinct 137 (Mecklenburg County)persuadeStarting line Watson +5. 11.5% split their ticket.
- 04+222Precinct 091 (Mecklenburg County)persuadeStarting line Watson +13. 10.9% split their ticket. About 939 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+193Precinct 216 (Mecklenburg County)persuadeStarting line Watson +15. 8.5% split their ticket. About 1,364 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+192Precinct 233 (Mecklenburg County)persuadeStarting line Watson +9. 11.6% split their ticket.
- 07+189Wadesboro (Anson County)mobilizeStarting line Watson +22. 5.7% split their ticket. About 1,489 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+188Precinct 069 (Mecklenburg County)persuadeStarting line Watson +11. 11.9% split their ticket.
- 09+186Sandy Ridge Elementary School (Union County)persuadeStarting line Harris +9. 11.1% split their ticket.
- 10+182Precinct 01-08 (Cabarrus County)persuadeStarting line Watson +15. 6.9% split their ticket. About 1,821 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+176Precinct 019 (Union County)persuadeStarting line Harris +22. 9.1% split their ticket.
- 12+168Siler Presbyterian Church (Union County)persuadeStarting line Harris +19. 11.4% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County) carries the most.
Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 307. It sits at Watson +14 on our starting line, and 10.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Wadesboro (Anson County) is a turnout target.
Watson's side leads Wadesboro (Anson County) by about 22 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,489 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 110 votes there.
Precinct 069 (Mecklenburg County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 069 (Mecklenburg County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 11.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Harris had $518K in cash on hand to Watson's $2,343. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Watson's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 199
- Slope
- 0.977
- R²
- 0.996
- Residual SD
- 1.7 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 32
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Watson's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Watson, with Harris, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 10 to 14Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 12,081 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 15 to 24Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests must be received by October 20.
- October 25 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 23,344 of them live where Watson is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 19.3 points; Robinson carried the 2024 governor's race by 1.6 points; Budd carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 20.2 points.
- Watson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Harris.
- In Wadesboro (Anson County) and Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 10.1 points toward Watson's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
5,383 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 102,735 dials to 34,245 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $11,023 at our published rates: 34,245 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Colby Watson (D)
A Union County small business owner who works in federal contracting. Born in Indian Trail and homeschooled, he lives in Monroe.
Cash on hand $2,343 and $39,569 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Mark Harris (R)
U.S. representative for the 8th District since 2025 and a Baptist pastor who led First Baptist Church of Charlotte and served as president of the Baptist State Convention of North Carolina. He holds a political science degree from Appalachian State University (1987) and a Master of Divinity and doctorate from Southeastern Baptist Theological Seminary.
Cash on hand $517,853 and $1,019,134 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Bo Whitehead (G)
A Charlotte warehouse supervisor who grew up on a small family farm in Georgia and has worked in hazardous chemical transport, logistics and loss prevention.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Colby Watson lost
Unofficial result: Colby Watson 48.6%, Mark Harris 50.4%, a margin of 1.8 points. Our starting line had Harris +15.4; Watson ran ahead of that line by 13.7 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Harris +15.6. Colby Watson needs 42,369 net votes. Odds 1% today, 8% with the plan.
Questions
Who won NC-08 in 2026?
Mark Harris won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Colby Watson 48.6%, Mark Harris 50.4%, a margin of 1.8 points. Our starting line had Harris +15.4; Watson ran ahead of that line by 13.7 points.
Can Colby Watson win North Carolina's 8th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 14,323 net votes against a gap of 41,523; the rest would take a 10.1-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Colby Watson needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 01-04 (Cabarrus County), Precinct 137 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 091 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 216 (Mecklenburg County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Colby Watson need to persuade?
About 6,040 voters who lean Mark Harris today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 12,081 persuadable voters leaning Mark Harris.
When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?
One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- North Carolina State Board of Elections, election results
- North Carolina General Assembly, 2025 congressional plan (S.L. 2025-95)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: North Carolina's 8th congressional district
- Wikipedia: Mark Harris (North Carolina politician)
- Ballotpedia: North Carolina's 8th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Colby Watson
- Ballotpedia: Bo Whitehead
- Ballotpedia: Mark Harris (North Carolina)