Upset Brief · NC-09 · Richard Ojeda (D) vs. Richard Hudson (R), incumbent

Ojeda can win. The math closes using 35 percent of what history allows.

18%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
11,382
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 15
Where
  1. 01
    Archdale (Randolph County)
    Starting line Hudson +42. 12.0% split their ticket.
    +481
  2. 02
    Seven Lakes (Moore County)
    Starting line Hudson +20. 12.7% split their ticket.
    +378
  3. 03
    Providence (Randolph County)
    Starting line Hudson +56. 11.4% split their ticket.
    +377
  4. 04
    Asheboro West (Randolph County)
    Starting line Hudson +13. 12.7% split their ticket.
    +332
  5. 05
    Pinehurst C (Moore County)
    Starting line Hudson +4. 11.4% split their ticket.
    +331
  6. 06
    Graham 4 (Alamance County)
    Starting line even. 12.2% split their ticket.
    +329

The top 12 precincts carry 33% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 27,450 leaning Hudson today.
    +9,520
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 49,682 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ojeda's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,155
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ojeda's way.
    +276
What has to be true
  1. Ojeda wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hudson.
  2. In Lake Rim (Cumberland County), 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 35 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    169 precincts, R² 0.988, 4 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -20,769 to 22,142 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Ojeda $163,673 cash on hand; Hudson $1,335,132.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    20,545 households, 61,636 dials, about 3,230 live conversations: an estimated $7,125 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,125 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.