North Carolina · U.S. House · District 9 · November 3, 2026

How Richard Ojeda wins.

Hudson starts 4.5 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Ojeda needs 11,382 net votes, and the math closes using 35 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Archdale (Randolph County), Seven Lakes (Moore County) and Providence (Randolph County).

11,382

net votes between Ojeda and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 15.

4.5 pts

Hudson lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Ojeda can win. The math closes using 35 percent of what history allows.

Odds today18%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find11,382

WhereArchdale (Randolph County), Seven Lakes (Moore County), Providence (Randolph County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Hudson +4.5. Richard Ojeda needs 11,382 net votes. Odds 18% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

125,204 votes.

That is half of the 250,406 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Ojeda stands today, and what is missing:

117,185 Richard Ojeda baseline

128,567 Richard Hudson baseline

Starting line: Hudson +4.5 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

18% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Ojeda wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

18%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves35%

The plan on this page sits at 35%. Median outcome at this setting: Ojeda by 741.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

9,520

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 27,450

Who. Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 27,450 leaning Hudson today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Ojeda needs to win 17 percent of the ones now leaning Hudson.

Mobilize

2,155

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 49,682

Who. At least 49,682 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ojeda's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

276

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,276

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ojeda's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,951 net votes against a gap of 11,382. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 33% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Archdale (Randolph County)persuade
Starting line Hudson +42. 12.0% split their ticket.
+481
02
Seven Lakes (Moore County)persuade
Starting line Hudson +20. 12.7% split their ticket.
+378
03
Providence (Randolph County)persuade
Starting line Hudson +56. 11.4% split their ticket.
+377
04
Asheboro West (Randolph County)persuade
Starting line Hudson +13. 12.7% split their ticket.
+332
05
Pinehurst C (Moore County)persuade
Starting line Hudson +4. 11.4% split their ticket.
+331
06
Graham 4 (Alamance County)persuade
Starting line even. 12.2% split their ticket.
+329
07
Lake Rim (Cumberland County)mobilize
Starting line Ojeda +61. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,509 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+321
08
Eureka/Whispering Pines (Moore County)persuade
Starting line Hudson +27. 11.7% split their ticket.
+318
09
Ncgr1 (Guilford County)persuade
Starting line even. 14.5% split their ticket.
+307
10
Coble (Alamance County)persuade
Starting line Hudson +47. 11.6% split their ticket.
+274
11
Pinehurst B1 (Moore County)persuade
Starting line Hudson +7. 14.0% split their ticket.
+268
12
Asheboro South (Randolph County)persuade
Starting line Hudson +36. 12.6% split their ticket.
+266

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Archdale (Randolph County) carries the most.

Archdale (Randolph County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 481. It sits at Hudson +42 on our starting line, and 12.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Lake Rim (Cumberland County) is a turnout race.

Ojeda's side leads Lake Rim (Cumberland County) by about 61 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,509 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 310 votes there.

Ncgr1 (Guilford County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Ncgr1 (Guilford County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 14.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Hudson had $1.34 million in cash on hand to Ojeda's $164K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Ojeda's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 169
Slope: 0.961
R²: 0.988
Residual SD: 3.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 4

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Ojeda's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 15.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Ojeda, with Hudson, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 14
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 9,520 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 15 to 24
Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 49,682 of them live where Ojeda is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 15.8 points; Stein carried the 2024 governor's race by 3.1 points; Budd carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 17.8 points.

Ojeda wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hudson.
In Lake Rim (Cumberland County), 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 35 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

3,230 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 61,636 dials to 20,545 households, before the last ballot is cast.

21K

households on the target list

62K

dials across three attempts

3,230

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,125 at our published rates: 20,545 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Richard Ojeda (D)

A retired U.S. Army major who served 24 years, including 15 years at Fort Bragg, earning two Bronze Stars, and a West Virginia state senator from 2017 to 2019. A West Virginia State and Webster University graduate, he now lives in Aberdeen in Moore County.

Cash on hand $163,673 and $2,237,508 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Richard Hudson (R)

U.S. representative since 2013 (the 8th District until 2023, the 9th since) and chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee. A UNC Charlotte graduate in history and political science, he was district director for Rep. Robin Hayes from 1999 to 2005 and later founded a Cabarrus County marketing firm.

Cash on hand $1,335,132 and $3,215,341 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Hudson +4.5. Richard Ojeda needs 11,382 net votes. Odds 18% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Richard Ojeda win North Carolina's 9th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Richard Ojeda needs 11,382 net votes, and recent North Carolina results show about 34,460 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 35 percent of that.

Where are the votes Richard Ojeda needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Archdale (Randolph County), Seven Lakes (Moore County), Providence (Randolph County), Asheboro West (Randolph County), Pinehurst C (Moore County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Richard Ojeda need to persuade?

About 4,760 voters who lean Richard Hudson today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 17 percent of the 27,450 persuadable voters leaning Richard Hudson.

When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?

One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.