Upset Brief · North Carolina U.S. Senate · Michael Whatley (R) vs. Roy Cooper (D)

Whatley gets within 20,026 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.5-point national shift finishes it.

3%
odds today
45%
odds with the plan
351,927
net votes to find
Roy Cooper won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Wake County
    Starting line Cooper +38. 32,000 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 202,098 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +33,093
  2. 02
    Mecklenburg County
    Starting line Cooper +43. 22,507 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 215,561 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +23,273
  3. 03
    Guilford County
    Starting line Cooper +31. 12,304 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 96,682 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +13,533
  4. 04
    Forsyth County
    Starting line Cooper +24. 9,498 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 70,348 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +10,458
  5. 05
    Davidson County
    Starting line Whatley +34. 4,653 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 34,174 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +8,953
  6. 06
    Union County
    Starting line Whatley +14. 5,967 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 49,409 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +8,412

The top 12 counties carry 44% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    248,630 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Cooper, plus the 4 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +248,630
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 647,166 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Whatley's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +72,183
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Whatley's way.
    +11,088

Plus a national shift of 0.5 points of margin (20,026 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Whatley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Cooper.
  2. In the precincts Whatley's side carries in Randolph County and Davidson County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 0.5 points toward Whatley's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    2,679 precincts, R² 0.997, 363 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -367,195 to 332,944 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Whatley $3,461,698 cash on hand; Cooper $20,717,567.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    811,512 households, 2,434,537 dials, about 127,570 live conversations: an estimated $223,085 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $223,085 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.