North Carolina · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

How Michael Whatley wins.

Cooper starts 9.3 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work gets Whatley within 20,329 votes; a 0.5-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Wake County, Mecklenburg County and Guilford County.

352,274

net votes between Whatley and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 15.

9.3 pts

Cooper lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Whatley gets within 20,329 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.5-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today3%

Odds with the plan45%

Net votes to find352,274

WhereWake County, Mecklenburg County, Guilford County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Cooper +9.3. Michael Whatley needs 352,274 net votes. Odds 3% today, 45% with the plan.

The number

1,895,798 votes.

That is half of the 3,791,595 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Whatley stands today, and what is missing:

1,683,900 Michael Whatley baseline

2,036,173 Roy Cooper baseline

Starting line: Cooper +9.3 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

3% today. 45% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Whatley wins in

45%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Whatley short by 23,972.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

249K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 248,877

Who. Ticket splitters and the 4 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 248,877 leaning Cooper today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Whatley needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Cooper.

Mobilize

72K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 645,656

Who. At least 645,656 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Whatley's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

11K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 31,710

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Whatley's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 331,945 net votes against a gap of 352,274. Still 20,329 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 0.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 44% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Wake Countypersuade
Starting line Cooper +38. 32,000 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 202,098 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+33,093
02
Mecklenburg Countypersuade
Starting line Cooper +43. 22,507 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 215,561 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+23,272
03
Guilford Countypersuade
Starting line Cooper +31. 12,304 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 96,682 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+13,532
04
Forsyth Countypersuade
Starting line Cooper +24. 9,498 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 70,348 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+10,457
05
Davidson Countypersuade
Starting line Whatley +34. 4,653 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 34,174 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+8,951
06
Union Countypersuade
Starting line Whatley +14. 6,215 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 45,663 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+8,508
07
Brunswick Countypersuade
Starting line Whatley +10. 6,610 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 36,142 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+8,287
08
New Hanover Countypersuade
Starting line Cooper +14. 7,784 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 44,638 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+8,103
09
Johnston Countypersuade
Starting line Whatley +9. 5,600 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 48,713 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,839
10
Randolph Countymobilize
Starting line Whatley +44. 3,562 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 27,550 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,812
11
Iredell Countypersuade
Starting line Whatley +20. 5,060 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 41,331 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,754
12
Gaston Countypersuade
Starting line Whatley +12. 5,032 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 45,046 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,593

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Wake County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Wake County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 33,093. It sits at Cooper +38 on our starting line.

Randolph County is a turnout race.

In the precincts Whatley's side carries in Randolph County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 4,044 votes in this plan.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Cooper had $20.72 million in cash on hand to Whatley's $3.46 million. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Whatley's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 2,679
Slope: 0.964
R²: 0.997
Residual SD: 2.0 pts
Crossover precincts: 363

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Whatley's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 15.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Whatley, with Cooper, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 14
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 248,877 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 15 to 24
Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 645,656 of them live where Whatley is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 3.2 points; Stein carried the 2024 governor's race by 14.8 points; Budd carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 3.2 points.

Whatley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Cooper.
In the precincts Whatley's side carries in Randolph County and Davidson County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 0.5 points toward Whatley's side between now and November 3.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

127,463 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 2,432,500 dials to 810,833 households, before the last ballot is cast.

811K

households on the target list

2,433K

dials across three attempts

127K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $222,898 at our published rates: 810,833 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Michael Whatley (R)

Gaston County resident who chaired the Republican National Committee (2024 to 2025) and the North Carolina Republican Party (2019 to 2024), after serving as a deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Energy and as chief of staff to U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole. He grew up in Watauga County and holds a BA from UNC Charlotte, a master's degree from Wake Forest University, and a master's degree and JD from the University of Notre Dame.

Cash on hand $3,461,698 and $11,271,473 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

Roy Cooper (D)

Nashville, North Carolina native who served as the state's 75th governor (2017 to 2025) and as attorney general (2001 to 2017), after serving in the North Carolina House (1987 to 1991) and Senate (1991 to 2001), including as Senate majority leader. He holds a BA and a JD from UNC Chapel Hill, where he was a Morehead Scholar.

Cash on hand $20,717,567 and $34,975,789 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Shannon W. Bray (L)

Angier-based cybersecurity and information technology professional and U.S. Navy veteran (1991 to 1997). He holds a BS in information technology from Colorado State University Global and an MS in cybersecurity from the University of Delaware.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Michael Dublin (G)

Garner public school teacher and U.S. Marine Corps veteran who was the Green Party nominee for North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District in 2024. He campaigns on a People, Planet, and Progress platform.

Cash on hand $10,027 and $25,276 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Cooper +9.3. Michael Whatley needs 352,274 net votes. Odds 3% today, 45% with the plan.

Questions

Can Michael Whatley win the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 331,945 net votes; the gap is 352,274. The rest would take a 0.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes Michael Whatley needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Wake County, Mecklenburg County, Guilford County, Forsyth County, Davidson County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Michael Whatley need to persuade?

About 124,438 voters who lean Roy Cooper today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 248,877 persuadable voters leaning Roy Cooper.

When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?

One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.