Conroy can win. The plan uses 40 percent of what history allows.

1. 01
   Deerfield Twp Cc (Warren County)

   Starting line Conroy +9. 13.8% split their ticket.
   +119
2. 02
   Anderson I (Hamilton County)

   Starting line Landsman +10. 11.9% split their ticket.
   +109
3. 03
   Mason City Y (Warren County)

   Starting line Landsman +5. 13.3% split their ticket.
   +104
4. 04
   Symmes C (Hamilton County)

   Starting line Landsman +2. 11.3% split their ticket.
   +102
5. 05
   South Lebanon City D (Warren County)

   Starting line Conroy +13. 10.7% split their ticket.
   +99
6. 06
   Cincinnati 5-D (Hamilton County)

   Starting line Landsman +47. 10.5% split their ticket.
   +99

The top 12 precincts carry 9% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  27,372 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Landsman, plus the 10 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  +11,024
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 50,025 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Conroy's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +2,484
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Conroy's way.
  +233

1. Conroy wins 20 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Landsman.
2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 40 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  541 precincts, R² 0.997, 94 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -24,233 to 25,914 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Conroy $474,156 cash on hand; Landsman $3,610,214.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  25,177 households, 75,531 dials, about 3,958 live conversations: an estimated $8,419 at published rates.