How Eric Conroy wins.
Landsman starts 4.4 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Conroy needs 13,087 net votes, and the math closes using 40 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Deerfield Twp Cc (Warren County), Anderson I (Hamilton County) and Mason City Y (Warren County).
Conroy can win. The math closes using 40 percent of what history allows.
147,232 votes.
That is half of the 294,463 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Conroy stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: Landsman +4.4 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
19% today. 52% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. Ticket splitters and the 10 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 27,372 leaning Landsman today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Conroy needs to win 20 percent of the ones now leaning Landsman.
Who. At least 50,025 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Conroy's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Conroy's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 13,741 net votes against a gap of 13,087. That is a win.
12 precincts carry 9% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+119Deerfield Twp Cc (Warren County)persuadeStarting line Conroy +9. 13.8% split their ticket.
- 02+109Anderson I (Hamilton County)persuadeStarting line Landsman +10. 11.9% split their ticket.
- 03+104Mason City Y (Warren County)persuadeStarting line Landsman +5. 13.3% split their ticket.
- 04+102Symmes C (Hamilton County)persuadeStarting line Landsman +2. 11.3% split their ticket.
- 05+99South Lebanon City D (Warren County)persuadeStarting line Conroy +13. 10.7% split their ticket.
- 06+99Cincinnati 5-D (Hamilton County)persuadeStarting line Landsman +47. 10.5% split their ticket.
- 07+97Anderson Ff (Hamilton County)persuadeStarting line Landsman +10. 14.3% split their ticket.
- 08+97Anderson D (Hamilton County)persuadeStarting line Conroy +10. 10.3% split their ticket.
- 09+97Anderson L (Hamilton County)persuadeStarting line Landsman +2. 10.5% split their ticket.
- 10+95Mason City G (Warren County)persuadeStarting line Landsman +13. 14.7% split their ticket.
- 11+95Cincinnati 8-C (Hamilton County)persuadeStarting line Landsman +37. 10.7% split their ticket.
- 12+94Turtlecreek Twp F (Warren County)persuadeStarting line Conroy +30. 10.9% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Deerfield Twp Cc (Warren County) carries the most.
Deerfield Twp Cc (Warren County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 119. It sits at Conroy +9 on our starting line, and 13.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Mason City G (Warren County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Mason City G (Warren County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 14.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Landsman had $3.61 million in cash on hand to Conroy's $474K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Conroy's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 541
- Slope
- 0.970
- R²
- 0.997
- Residual SD
- 2.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 94
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Conroy's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 6.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Conroy, with Landsman, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,024 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 25Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 50,025 of them live where Conroy is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 2.6 points; Brown carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 2.3 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 0.1 points.
- Conroy wins 20 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Landsman.
- No national wave is required. The plan closes at 40 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
3,958 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 75,531 dials to 25,177 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,419 at our published rates: 25,177 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Eric Conroy (R)
A Cincinnati West Side native and Elder High School graduate, he graduated from the U.S. Air Force Academy, rose to captain as an Air Force intelligence officer supporting Special Operations forces, and later served as a CIA case officer. He holds an MPA from Columbia University.
Cash on hand $474,156 and $1,417,731 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Greg Landsman (D)
U.S. representative for the 1st District since 2023 and a Cincinnati City Council member from 2018 to 2022; a Cincinnati native who led the Preschool Promise initiative and holds degrees from Ohio University and Harvard Divinity School.
Cash on hand $3,610,214 and $4,633,250 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Nathan Weise (L)
Software engineer running as the Libertarian nominee in Southwest Ohio.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Landsman +4.4. Eric Conroy needs 13,079 net votes. Odds 19% today, 52% with the plan.
Questions
Can Eric Conroy win Ohio's 1st Congressional District in 2026?
Yes, on the math. Eric Conroy needs 13,087 net votes, and recent Ohio results show about 34,119 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 40 percent of that.
Where are the votes Eric Conroy needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Deerfield Twp Cc (Warren County), Anderson I (Hamilton County), Mason City Y (Warren County), Symmes C (Hamilton County), South Lebanon City D (Warren County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Eric Conroy need to persuade?
About 5,512 voters who lean Greg Landsman today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 20 percent of the 27,372 persuadable voters leaning Greg Landsman.
When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?
In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Ohio Secretary of State, election results and data
- Ballotpedia, Redistricting in Ohio (the 2025 congressional plan)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: Quantus Insights (2026-08-21 to 2026-08-24)