Upset Brief · OH-10 · Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs. Mike Turner (R), incumbent

Knickerbocker can win. The math closes using 59 percent of what history allows.

8%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
18,773
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Fairborn 226 (Greene County)
    Starting line Turner +11. 12.0% split their ticket.
    +169
  2. 02
    Dayton 22-C (Montgomery County)
    Starting line Knickerbocker +90. 10.6% split their ticket. About 361 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +163
  3. 03
    Harrison Twp M (Montgomery County)
    Starting line Knickerbocker +76. 13.3% split their ticket. About 223 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +137
  4. 04
    Sugarcreek 151 (Greene County)
    Starting line Turner +21. 9.8% split their ticket.
    +125
  5. 05
    Trotwood 1-E (Montgomery County)
    Starting line Knickerbocker +85. 10.8% split their ticket. About 210 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +120
  6. 06
    Jefferson Twp D (Montgomery County)
    Starting line Knickerbocker +88. 13.1% split their ticket. About 194 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +119

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 28,877 leaning Turner today.
    +17,078
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 23,095 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Knickerbocker's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,309
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Knickerbocker's way.
    +324
What has to be true
  1. Knickerbocker wins 30 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Turner.
  2. In Dayton 22-C (Montgomery County) and Trotwood 2-B (Montgomery County), 21 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 59 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    588 precincts, R² 0.993, 80 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -23,445 to 25,808 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Knickerbocker $125,160 cash on hand; Turner $556,284.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    29,823 households, 89,468 dials, about 4,688 live conversations: an estimated $9,973 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,973 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.