Ohio · U.S. House · District 10 · November 3, 2026

How Kristina Knickerbocker wins.

Turner starts 6.7 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Knickerbocker needs 18,773 net votes, and the math closes using 59 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Fairborn 226 (Greene County), Dayton 22-C (Montgomery County) and Harrison Twp M (Montgomery County).

18,773

net votes between Knickerbocker and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

6.7 pts

Turner lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Knickerbocker can win. The math closes using 59 percent of what history allows.

Odds today8%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find18,773

WhereFairborn 226 (Greene County), Dayton 22-C (Montgomery County), Harrison Twp M (Montgomery County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Turner +6.7. Kristina Knickerbocker needs 18,773 net votes. Odds 8% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

139,233 votes.

That is half of the 278,465 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Knickerbocker stands today, and what is missing:

128,152 Kristina Knickerbocker baseline

146,925 Mike Turner baseline

Starting line: Turner +6.7 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

8% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Knickerbocker wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves59%

The plan on this page sits at 59%. Median outcome at this setting: Knickerbocker by 812.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

17K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 28,877

Who. Ticket splitters and the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 28,877 leaning Turner today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Knickerbocker needs to win 30 percent of the ones now leaning Turner.

Mobilize

2,309

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 23,095

Who. At least 23,095 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Knickerbocker's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

324

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,568

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Knickerbocker's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 19,711 net votes against a gap of 18,773. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 8% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Fairborn 226 (Greene County)persuade
Starting line Turner +11. 12.0% split their ticket.
+169
02
Dayton 22-C (Montgomery County)mobilize
Starting line Knickerbocker +90. 10.6% split their ticket. About 361 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+163
03
Harrison Twp M (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Knickerbocker +76. 13.3% split their ticket. About 223 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+137
04
Sugarcreek 151 (Greene County)persuade
Starting line Turner +21. 9.8% split their ticket.
+125
05
Trotwood 1-E (Montgomery County)mobilize
Starting line Knickerbocker +85. 10.8% split their ticket. About 210 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+120
06
Jefferson Twp D (Montgomery County)mobilize
Starting line Knickerbocker +88. 13.1% split their ticket. About 194 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+119
07
Dayton 16-D (Montgomery County)mobilize
Starting line Knickerbocker +87. 10.0% split their ticket. About 201 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+119
08
Trotwood 2-B (Montgomery County)mobilize
Starting line Knickerbocker +76. 11.5% split their ticket. About 242 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+118
09
Dayton 22-A (Montgomery County)mobilize
Starting line Knickerbocker +78. 10.6% split their ticket. About 230 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+117
10
Trotwood 4-A (Montgomery County)mobilize
Starting line Knickerbocker +83. 10.2% split their ticket. About 219 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+112
11
Centerville-H (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Turner +3. 15.9% split their ticket.
+112
12
Beavercreek 094 (Greene County)persuade
Starting line Turner +25. 10.7% split their ticket.
+111

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Fairborn 226 (Greene County) carries the most.

Fairborn 226 (Greene County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 169. It sits at Turner +11 on our starting line, and 12.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Dayton 22-C (Montgomery County) is a turnout race.

Knickerbocker's side leads Dayton 22-C (Montgomery County) by about 90 points on our starting line, and it cast about 361 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 113 votes there.

Centerville-H (Montgomery County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Centerville-H (Montgomery County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 15.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Turner had $556K in cash on hand to Knickerbocker's $125K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Knickerbocker's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 588
Slope: 0.964
R²: 0.993
Residual SD: 2.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 80

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Knickerbocker's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Knickerbocker, with Turner, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 17,078 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 23,095 of them live where Knickerbocker is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 7.8 points; Moreno carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 1.0 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 5.9 points.

Knickerbocker wins 30 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Turner.
In Dayton 22-C (Montgomery County) and Trotwood 2-B (Montgomery County), 21 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 59 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

4,688 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 89,468 dials to 29,823 households, before the last ballot is cast.

30K

households on the target list

89K

dials across three attempts

4,688

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,973 at our published rates: 29,823 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Kristina Knickerbocker (D)

U.S. Air Force veteran (2015 to 2025) who served as a major and nurse with the 88th Air Base Wing at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and later in the Air Force Reserve, and who worked as a neuro-oncology nurse practitioner at The Ohio State University Medical Center.

Cash on hand $125,160 and $362,666 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Mike Turner (R)

U.S. representative since 2003 (10th District since 2013) and mayor of Dayton from 1994 to 2002; a Dayton native with degrees from Ohio Northern University, Case Western Reserve (JD) and the University of Dayton (MBA).

Cash on hand $556,284 and $894,595 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Thomas McMasters (L)

Former mayor of Huber Heights and U.S. Air Force veteran (1989 to 2009) who works as a senior consultant; holds degrees from the University at Buffalo and The Citadel.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Turner +6.7. Kristina Knickerbocker needs 18,773 net votes. Odds 8% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Kristina Knickerbocker win Ohio's 10th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Kristina Knickerbocker needs 18,773 net votes, and recent Ohio results show about 33,330 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 59 percent of that.

Where are the votes Kristina Knickerbocker needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Fairborn 226 (Greene County), Dayton 22-C (Montgomery County), Harrison Twp M (Montgomery County), Sugarcreek 151 (Greene County), Trotwood 1-E (Montgomery County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Kristina Knickerbocker need to persuade?

About 8,539 voters who lean Mike Turner today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 30 percent of the 28,877 persuadable voters leaning Mike Turner.

When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.