Upset Brief · OH-11 · Mike Kirchner (R) vs. Shontel Brown (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 49.5-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
120,491
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Bratenahl-00-A (Cuyahoga County)
    Starting line Brown +36. 13.0% split their ticket.
    +58
  2. 02
    University Heights-00-H (Cuyahoga County)
    Starting line Kirchner +35. 5.6% split their ticket. About 285 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +52
  3. 03
    Pepper Pike-00-A (Cuyahoga County)
    Starting line Brown +39. 15.2% split their ticket.
    +52
  4. 04
    Lakewood-01-H (Cuyahoga County)
    Starting line Brown +30. 11.7% split their ticket.
    +52
  5. 05
    Pepper Pike-00-B (Cuyahoga County)
    Starting line Brown +31. 14.4% split their ticket.
    +50
  6. 06
    Shaker Heights-00-U (Cuyahoga County)
    Starting line Brown +54. 10.6% split their ticket.
    +46

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    10,802 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Brown today.
    +10,802
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 604 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kirchner's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +57
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kirchner's way.
    +151

Plus a national shift of 49.5 points of margin (109,482 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Kirchner wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Brown.
  2. In University Heights-00-H (Cuyahoga County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 49.5 points toward Kirchner's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    641 precincts, R² 0.988, 107 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -135,397 to -83,529 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Kirchner no FEC totals reported; Brown $1,156,556.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    15,620 households, 46,861 dials, about 2,456 live conversations: an estimated $6,193 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,193 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.