Ohio · U.S. House · District 11 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Mike Kirchner.

Brown starts 54.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 11,010 net votes toward Kirchner, a 5.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 49.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Kirchner the one standing if one comes.

120,491

net votes between Kirchner and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

54.5 pts

Brown lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Ohio races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 49.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find120,491

WhereBratenahl-00-A (Cuyahoga County), University Heights-00-H (Cuyahoga County), Pepper Pike-00-A (Cuyahoga County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Brown +54.5. Mike Kirchner needs 120,518 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

110,608 votes.

That is half of the 221,214 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kirchner stands today, and what is missing:

49,436 Mike Kirchner baseline

169,927 Shontel Brown baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate in 2024 and 2022, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Kirchner wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Kirchner short by 109,196.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

11K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 10,802

Who. 10,802 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Brown today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kirchner needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Brown.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 604

Who. At least 604 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kirchner's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

151

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 431

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kirchner's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,010 net votes against a gap of 120,491. Still 109,481 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 49.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 5% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Bratenahl-00-A (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Brown +36. 13.0% split their ticket.
+58
02
University Heights-00-H (Cuyahoga County)mobilize
Starting line Kirchner +35. 5.6% split their ticket. About 285 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+52
03
Pepper Pike-00-A (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Brown +39. 15.2% split their ticket.
+52
04
Lakewood-01-H (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Brown +30. 11.7% split their ticket.
+52
05
Pepper Pike-00-B (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Brown +31. 14.4% split their ticket.
+50
06
Shaker Heights-00-U (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Brown +54. 10.6% split their ticket.
+46
07
Shaker Heights-00-T (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Brown +68. 12.0% split their ticket.
+46
08
Garfield Heights-05-C (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Brown +49. 9.5% split their ticket.
+45
09
Gates Mills-00-A (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Brown +3. 13.9% split their ticket.
+45
10
Cleveland-17-R (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Brown +22. 14.9% split their ticket.
+45
11
Pepper Pike-00-D (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Brown +32. 11.1% split their ticket.
+44
12
Beachwood-00-H (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Brown +62. 9.6% split their ticket.
+44

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Bratenahl-00-A (Cuyahoga County) carries the most.

Bratenahl-00-A (Cuyahoga County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 58. It sits at Brown +36 on our starting line, and 13.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

University Heights-00-H (Cuyahoga County) is a turnout race.

Kirchner's side leads University Heights-00-H (Cuyahoga County) by about 35 points on our starting line, and it cast about 285 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 35 votes there.

Pepper Pike-00-A (Cuyahoga County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Pepper Pike-00-A (Cuyahoga County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 15.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 11,010 net votes. The gap is 120,491. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 5.0 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kirchner's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 641
Slope: 0.916
R²: 0.988
Residual SD: 2.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 107

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kirchner's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kirchner, with Brown, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 10,802 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 604 of them live where Kirchner is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 55.0 points; Brown carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 59.2 points; Ryan carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 59.2 points.

Kirchner wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Brown.
In University Heights-00-H (Cuyahoga County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 49.5 points toward Kirchner's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,456 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 46,861 dials to 15,620 households, before the last ballot is cast.

16K

households on the target list

47K

dials across three attempts

2,456

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,193 at our published rates: 15,620 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Mike Kirchner (R)

Retired consulting actuary.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Shontel Brown (D)

U.S. representative for the 11th District since 2021 and a former member of the Cuyahoga County Council; holds degrees from Cuyahoga Community College and Wilberforce University.

Cash on hand $1,156,556 and $1,183,643 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Brown +54.5. Mike Kirchner needs 120,518 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Mike Kirchner win Ohio's 11th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 11,010 net votes; the gap is 120,491. The rest would take a 49.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes Mike Kirchner needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Bratenahl-00-A (Cuyahoga County), University Heights-00-H (Cuyahoga County), Pepper Pike-00-A (Cuyahoga County), Lakewood-01-H (Cuyahoga County), Pepper Pike-00-B (Cuyahoga County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Mike Kirchner need to persuade?

About 5,401 voters who lean Shontel Brown today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 10,802 persuadable voters leaning Shontel Brown.

When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.