Upset Brief · OH-12 · Jerrad Christian (D) vs. Troy Balderson (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 24.4-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
87,041
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Reynoldsburg 3-D (Licking County)
    Starting line Christian +39. 9.2% split their ticket. About 478 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +100
  2. 02
    Columbus City E (Fairfield County)
    Starting line Christian +39. 12.9% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +88
  3. 03
    Columbus City B (Fairfield County)
    Starting line Christian +44. 10.8% split their ticket. About 381 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +85
  4. 04
    Granville Village C (Licking County)
    Starting line Christian +56. 9.6% split their ticket. About 304 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +81
  5. 05
    Granville Village A (Licking County)
    Starting line Christian +31. 11.2% split their ticket. About 205 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +79
  6. 06
    Reynoldsburg 3-C (Licking County)
    Starting line Christian +26. 9.1% split their ticket. About 387 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +72

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    13,138 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Balderson today.
    +13,138
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 8,761 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Christian's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +813
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Christian's way.
    +415

Plus a national shift of 24.4 points of margin (72,675 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Christian wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Balderson.
  2. In Reynoldsburg 3-D (Licking County) and Granville Village C (Licking County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 24.4 points toward Christian's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    577 precincts, R² 0.986, 96 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -108,213 to -37,463 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Christian $18,925 cash on hand; Balderson $1,982,352.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    24,992 households, 74,976 dials, about 3,929 live conversations: an estimated $8,667 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,667 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.