Ohio · U.S. House · District 12 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Jerrad Christian.

Q: Can Jerrad Christian win Ohio's 12th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 14,366 net votes; the gap is 87,041. The rest would take a 24.4-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Jerrad Christian needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Reynoldsburg 3-D (Licking County), Columbus City E (Fairfield County), Columbus City B (Fairfield County), Granville Village C (Licking County), Granville Village A (Licking County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Jerrad Christian need to persuade?

About 6,569 voters who lean Troy Balderson today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 13,138 persuadable voters leaning Troy Balderson.

Q: When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Balderson starts 29.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 14,366 net votes toward Christian, a 4.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 24.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Christian the one standing if one comes.

87,041

net votes between Christian and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

29.2 pts

Balderson lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Ohio races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 24.4-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find87,041

WhereReynoldsburg 3-D (Licking County), Columbus City E (Fairfield County), Columbus City B (Fairfield County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Balderson +29.3. Jerrad Christian needs 86,973 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

149,020 votes.

That is half of the 298,039 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Christian stands today, and what is missing:

103,786 Jerrad Christian baseline

190,826 Troy Balderson baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate in 2024 and 2022, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Christian wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Christian short by 72,892.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

13K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,138

Who. 13,138 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Balderson today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Christian needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Balderson.

Mobilize

813

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 8,761

Who. At least 8,761 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Christian's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

415

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,184

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Christian's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 14,366 net votes against a gap of 87,041. Still 72,675 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 24.4 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 6% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Reynoldsburg 3-D (Licking County)mobilize
Starting line Christian +39. 9.2% split their ticket. About 478 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+100
02
Columbus City E (Fairfield County)mobilize
Starting line Christian +39. 12.9% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+88
03
Columbus City B (Fairfield County)mobilize
Starting line Christian +44. 10.8% split their ticket. About 381 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+85
04
Granville Village C (Licking County)mobilize
Starting line Christian +56. 9.6% split their ticket. About 304 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+81
05
Granville Village A (Licking County)persuade
Starting line Christian +31. 11.2% split their ticket. About 205 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+79
06
Reynoldsburg 3-C (Licking County)persuade
Starting line Christian +26. 9.1% split their ticket. About 387 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+72
07
Reynoldsburg 3-A (Licking County)persuade
Starting line Christian +16. 11.3% split their ticket. About 375 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+68
08
Precinct Powell City E (Delaware County)persuade
Starting line Christian +13. 14.3% split their ticket. About 177 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+66
09
Newark 3-B (Licking County)persuade
Starting line Balderson +12. 11.1% split their ticket.
+66
10
Reynoldsburg 3-B (Licking County)persuade
Starting line Christian +28. 13.6% split their ticket. About 319 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+65
11
Precinct Columbus City F (Delaware County)persuade
Starting line Christian +20. 14.4% split their ticket. About 293 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+65
12
Granville Village B (Licking County)persuade
Starting line Balderson +2. 13.8% split their ticket.
+65

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Reynoldsburg 3-D (Licking County) carries the most.

Reynoldsburg 3-D (Licking County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 100. It sits at Christian +39 on our starting line, and 9.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Granville Village C (Licking County) is a turnout race.

Christian's side leads Granville Village C (Licking County) by about 56 points on our starting line, and it cast about 304 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 59 votes there.

Precinct Columbus City F (Delaware County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct Columbus City F (Delaware County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 14.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Balderson had $1.98 million in cash on hand to Christian's $19K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Christian's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 577
Slope: 0.956
R²: 0.986
Residual SD: 3.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 96

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Christian's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Christian, with Balderson, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 13,138 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 8,761 of them live where Christian is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 30.1 points; Moreno carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 21.9 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 25.4 points.

Christian wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Balderson.
In Reynoldsburg 3-D (Licking County) and Granville Village C (Licking County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 24.4 points toward Christian's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,929 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 74,976 dials to 24,992 households, before the last ballot is cast.

25K

households on the target list

75K

dials across three attempts

3,929

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,667 at our published rates: 24,992 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Jerrad Christian (D)

Ohio-born software engineer who grew up in Appalachian Ohio and served in the U.S. Navy from 2002 to 2007, first fueling aircraft on a carrier flight deck and later as a meteorologist and oceanographer.

Cash on hand $18,925 and $84,378 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Troy Balderson (R)

U.S. representative for the 12th District since 2018; previously served in the Ohio Senate (2011 to 2018) and Ohio House (2009 to 2011), and worked in his family's Zanesville car business.

Cash on hand $1,982,352 and $1,743,281 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Balderson +29.3. Jerrad Christian needs 86,973 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Jerrad Christian win Ohio's 12th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 14,366 net votes; the gap is 87,041. The rest would take a 24.4-point national shift.

Where are the votes Jerrad Christian needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Reynoldsburg 3-D (Licking County), Columbus City E (Fairfield County), Columbus City B (Fairfield County), Granville Village C (Licking County), Granville Village A (Licking County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Jerrad Christian need to persuade?

About 6,569 voters who lean Troy Balderson today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 13,138 persuadable voters leaning Troy Balderson.

When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.