Upset Brief · OH-13 · Carey Coleman (R) vs. Emilia Sykes (D), incumbent

Coleman can win. The math closes using 72 percent of what history allows.

28%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
11,849
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Sagamore Hills Twp A (Summit County)
    Starting line Coleman +14. 18.8% split their ticket.
    +86
  2. 02
    Jackson 23 (Stark County)
    Starting line Coleman +32. 12.2% split their ticket. About 271 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +86
  3. 03
    Lake 18 (Stark County)
    Starting line Coleman +36. 9.5% split their ticket. About 365 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +86
  4. 04
    Canton Twp 5 (Stark County)
    Starting line Coleman +33. 11.4% split their ticket. About 338 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +84
  5. 05
    Jackson 33 (Stark County)
    Starting line Coleman +28. 10.0% split their ticket. About 369 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +78
  6. 06
    North Canton 2-A (Stark County)
    Starting line Coleman +19. 14.0% split their ticket. About 457 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +76

The top 12 precincts carry 7% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    14,627 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sykes today.
    +10,478
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 31,321 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Coleman's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,551
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Coleman's way.
    +412
What has to be true
  1. Coleman wins 36 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sykes.
  2. In Springfield Twp G (Summit County) and Lake 18 (Stark County), 25 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 72 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    556 precincts, R² 0.987, 93 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -33,491 to 34,637 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Coleman $77,727 cash on hand; Sykes $1,897,462.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    27,681 households, 83,044 dials, about 4,352 live conversations: an estimated $9,257 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,257 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.