Ohio · U.S. House · District 13 · November 3, 2026

How Carey Coleman wins.

Sykes starts 4.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Coleman needs 11,849 net votes, and the math closes using 72 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Sagamore Hills Twp A (Summit County), Jackson 23 (Stark County) and Lake 18 (Stark County).

11,849

net votes between Coleman and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

4.1 pts

Sykes lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Coleman can win. The math closes using 72 percent of what history allows.

Odds today28%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find11,849

WhereSagamore Hills Twp A (Summit County), Jackson 23 (Stark County), Lake 18 (Stark County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Sykes +3.9. Carey Coleman needs 11,141 net votes. Odds 29% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

144,899 votes.

That is half of the 289,797 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Coleman stands today, and what is missing:

137,255 Carey Coleman baseline

149,104 Emilia Sykes baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate in 2024 and 2022, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

28% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Coleman wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

28%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves72%

The plan on this page sits at 72%. Median outcome at this setting: Coleman by 419.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

10K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14,627

Who. 14,627 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sykes today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Coleman needs to win 36 percent of the ones now leaning Sykes.

Mobilize

1,551

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 31,321

Who. At least 31,321 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Coleman's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

412

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,644

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Coleman's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 12,441 net votes against a gap of 11,849. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 7% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Sagamore Hills Twp A (Summit County)persuade
Starting line Coleman +14. 18.8% split their ticket.
+86
02
Jackson 23 (Stark County)persuade
Starting line Coleman +32. 12.2% split their ticket. About 271 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+86
03
Lake 18 (Stark County)mobilize
Starting line Coleman +36. 9.5% split their ticket. About 365 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+86
04
Canton Twp 5 (Stark County)persuade
Starting line Coleman +33. 11.4% split their ticket. About 338 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+84
05
Jackson 33 (Stark County)persuade
Starting line Coleman +28. 10.0% split their ticket. About 369 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+78
06
North Canton 2-A (Stark County)persuade
Starting line Coleman +19. 14.0% split their ticket. About 457 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+76
07
Springfield Twp G (Summit County)mobilize
Starting line Coleman +30. 10.2% split their ticket. About 492 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+71
08
Canton Twp 2 (Stark County)persuade
Starting line Coleman +25. 11.6% split their ticket. About 299 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+70
09
Jackson 21 (Stark County)persuade
Starting line Coleman +24. 11.3% split their ticket. About 255 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+69
10
Norton 3-A (Summit County)mobilize
Starting line Coleman +22. 11.0% split their ticket. About 475 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+69
11
Plain 9 (Stark County)persuade
Starting line Coleman +24. 10.0% split their ticket. About 290 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+68
12
Canton Twp 1 (Stark County)persuade
Starting line Coleman +31. 12.4% split their ticket. About 238 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+65

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Sagamore Hills Twp A (Summit County) carries the most.

Sagamore Hills Twp A (Summit County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 86. It sits at Coleman +14 on our starting line, and 18.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Springfield Twp G (Summit County) is a turnout race.

Coleman's side leads Springfield Twp G (Summit County) by about 30 points on our starting line, and it cast about 492 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 49 votes there.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Sykes had $1.90 million in cash on hand to Coleman's $78K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Coleman's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 556
Slope: 0.959
R²: 0.987
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 93

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Coleman's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Coleman, with Sykes, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 10,478 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 31,321 of them live where Coleman is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 3.3 points; Brown carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 10.7 points; Ryan carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 9.2 points.

Coleman wins 36 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sykes.
In Springfield Twp G (Summit County) and Lake 18 (Stark County), 25 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 72 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

4,352 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 83,044 dials to 27,681 households, before the last ballot is cast.

28K

households on the target list

83K

dials across three attempts

4,352

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,257 at our published rates: 27,681 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Carey Coleman (R)

Longtime Northeast Ohio broadcaster who hosted an evening talk show on Akron's WNIR-FM until January 2026 and earlier worked as a television meteorologist for WKYC, WOIO, The Weather Channel and CNN.

Cash on hand $77,727 and $127,109 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Emilia Sykes (D)

U.S. representative for the 13th District since 2023 and former Ohio House minority leader (2019 to 2021); an Akron native with a psychology degree from Kent State University and a law degree and master of public health from the University of Florida.

Cash on hand $1,897,462 and $3,137,440 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Sandeep Dixit (I)

Engineer and software architect with two decades in technology and business; a member of the Independent Candidate Network.

Cash on hand $6,171 and $58,496 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Sykes +3.9. Carey Coleman needs 11,141 net votes. Odds 29% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Carey Coleman win Ohio's 13th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Carey Coleman needs 11,849 net votes, and recent Ohio results show about 17,367 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 72 percent of that.

Where are the votes Carey Coleman needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Sagamore Hills Twp A (Summit County), Jackson 23 (Stark County), Lake 18 (Stark County), Canton Twp 5 (Stark County), Jackson 33 (Stark County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Carey Coleman need to persuade?

About 5,239 voters who lean Emilia Sykes today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 36 percent of the 14,627 persuadable voters leaning Emilia Sykes.

When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.