Upset Brief · OH-15 · Don Leonard (D) vs. Mike Carey (R), incumbent

Leonard can win. The math closes using 43 percent of what history allows.

15%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
12,833
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Cols 86-A (Franklin County)
    Starting line Leonard +55. 9.9% split their ticket. About 567 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +178
  2. 02
    Hill 4-A (Franklin County)
    Starting line Leonard +24. 11.3% split their ticket.
    +156
  3. 03
    Dub 3-B (Franklin County)
    Starting line Leonard +14. 15.6% split their ticket.
    +144
  4. 04
    Dub 3-A (Franklin County)
    Starting line Leonard +4. 12.1% split their ticket.
    +119
  5. 05
    Hill 4-C (Franklin County)
    Starting line Leonard +16. 11.1% split their ticket.
    +114
  6. 06
    Dub 4-F (Franklin County)
    Starting line Leonard +21. 14.2% split their ticket.
    +114

The top 12 precincts carry 11% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 26,184 leaning Carey today.
    +11,210
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 44,332 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Leonard's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,053
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Leonard's way.
    +211
What has to be true
  1. Leonard wins 21 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Carey.
  2. In Cols 86-A (Franklin County) and Cols 45-C (Franklin County), 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 43 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    536 precincts, R² 0.993, 74 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -20,829 to 22,205 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Leonard $252,402 cash on hand; Carey $2,056,713.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    23,371 households, 70,113 dials, about 3,674 live conversations: an estimated $8,105 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,105 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.