Leonard can win. The plan uses 43 percent of what history allows.

1. 01
   Cols 86-A (Franklin County)

   Starting line Leonard +55. 9.9% split their ticket. About 567 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
   +178
2. 02
   Hill 4-A (Franklin County)

   Starting line Leonard +24. 11.3% split their ticket.
   +156
3. 03
   Dub 3-B (Franklin County)

   Starting line Leonard +14. 15.6% split their ticket.
   +144
4. 04
   Dub 3-A (Franklin County)

   Starting line Leonard +4. 12.1% split their ticket.
   +119
5. 05
   Hill 4-C (Franklin County)

   Starting line Leonard +16. 11.1% split their ticket.
   +114
6. 06
   Dub 4-F (Franklin County)

   Starting line Leonard +21. 14.2% split their ticket.
   +114

The top 12 precincts carry 11% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  26,156 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Carey, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  +11,198
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 44,332 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Leonard's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +2,050
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Leonard's way.
  +211

1. Leonard wins 21 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Carey.
2. In Cols 86-A (Franklin County) and Cols 45-C (Franklin County), 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 43 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  536 precincts, R² 0.993, 74 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -20,807 to 22,181 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Leonard $252,402 cash on hand; Carey $2,056,713.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  23,349 households, 70,047 dials, about 3,670 live conversations: an estimated $8,097 at published rates.