Ohio · U.S. House · District 15 · November 3, 2026

How Don Leonard wins.

Carey starts 5.1 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Leonard needs 12,833 net votes, and the math closes using 43 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Cols 86-A (Franklin County), Hill 4-A (Franklin County) and Dub 3-B (Franklin County).

12,833

net votes between Leonard and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

5.1 pts

Carey lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Leonard can win. The math closes using 43 percent of what history allows.

Odds today15%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find12,833

WhereCols 86-A (Franklin County), Hill 4-A (Franklin County), Dub 3-B (Franklin County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Carey +5.1. Don Leonard needs 12,847 net votes. Odds 15% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

125,477 votes.

That is half of the 250,952 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Leonard stands today, and what is missing:

117,579 Don Leonard baseline

130,412 Mike Carey baseline

Starting line: Carey +5.1 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

15% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Leonard wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

15%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves43%

The plan on this page sits at 43%. Median outcome at this setting: Leonard by 448.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

11K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 26,184

Who. Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 26,184 leaning Carey today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Leonard needs to win 21 percent of the ones now leaning Carey.

Mobilize

2,053

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 44,332

Who. At least 44,332 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Leonard's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

211

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,410

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Leonard's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 13,474 net votes against a gap of 12,833. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 11% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Cols 86-A (Franklin County)mobilize
Starting line Leonard +55. 9.9% split their ticket. About 567 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+178
02
Hill 4-A (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Leonard +24. 11.3% split their ticket.
+156
03
Dub 3-B (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Leonard +14. 15.6% split their ticket.
+144
04
Dub 3-A (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Leonard +4. 12.1% split their ticket.
+119
05
Hill 4-C (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Leonard +16. 11.1% split their ticket.
+114
06
Dub 4-F (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Leonard +21. 14.2% split their ticket.
+114
07
Hill 2-D (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Leonard +21. 12.3% split their ticket.
+113
08
Dub 1-C (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Leonard +15. 14.6% split their ticket.
+112
09
Canal Win-B (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Carey +1. 10.9% split their ticket.
+111
10
Hill 4-D (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Leonard +15. 11.8% split their ticket.
+110
11
Cols 45-C (Franklin County)mobilize
Starting line Leonard +73. 11.3% split their ticket. About 229 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+109
12
London 2 (Madison County)persuade
Starting line Carey +21. 10.6% split their ticket.
+107

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Cols 86-A (Franklin County) carries the most.

Cols 86-A (Franklin County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 178. It sits at Leonard +55 on our starting line, and 9.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Cols 45-C (Franklin County) is a turnout race.

Leonard's side leads Cols 45-C (Franklin County) by about 73 points on our starting line, and it cast about 229 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 58 votes there.

Dub 3-B (Franklin County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Dub 3-B (Franklin County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 15.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Carey had $2.06 million in cash on hand to Leonard's $252K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Leonard's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 536
Slope: 0.975
R²: 0.993
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 74

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Leonard's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Leonard, with Carey, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,210 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 44,332 of them live where Leonard is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 10.0 points; Moreno carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 2.3 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 5.0 points.

Leonard wins 21 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Carey.
In Cols 86-A (Franklin County) and Cols 45-C (Franklin County), 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 43 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

3,674 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 70,113 dials to 23,371 households, before the last ballot is cast.

23K

households on the target list

70K

dials across three attempts

3,674

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,105 at our published rates: 23,371 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Don Leonard (D)

Former Ohio State University assistant professor of practice in city and regional planning with a doctorate in government from Cornell University, who served two years as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer in Bolivia.

Cash on hand $252,402 and $606,658 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Mike Carey (R)

U.S. representative for the 15th District since 2021; raised in Sabina, he served in the Army National Guard from 1989 to 1999 and holds degrees from Marion Military Institute and Ohio State University.

Cash on hand $2,056,713 and $3,299,679 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Brennan Barrington (L)

Central Ohio native and engineer with a bachelor's degree in aerospace engineering from Ohio State University; a member of the Libertarian Party of Ohio's central committee.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Gary Josephson (I)

Union representative, community activist and youth worker with a bachelor's degree from Ohio State University.

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Samuel Ronan (I)

U.S. Air Force veteran from Lancaster who reached the rank of staff sergeant and has worked in maintenance and metrology roles in manufacturing; lives in Grove City.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Carey +5.1. Don Leonard needs 12,847 net votes. Odds 15% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Don Leonard win Ohio's 15th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Don Leonard needs 12,833 net votes, and recent Ohio results show about 31,474 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 43 percent of that.

Where are the votes Don Leonard needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Cols 86-A (Franklin County), Hill 4-A (Franklin County), Dub 3-B (Franklin County), Dub 3-A (Franklin County), Hill 4-C (Franklin County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Don Leonard need to persuade?

About 5,605 voters who lean Mike Carey today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 21 percent of the 26,184 persuadable voters leaning Mike Carey.

When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.