A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.5-point national wave.

1. 01
   New Albany-F (Franklin County)

   Starting line Beatty +10. 14.3% split their ticket.
   +76
2. 02
   New Albany-B (Franklin County)

   Starting line Beatty +3. 15.1% split their ticket.
   +74
3. 03
   Cols 82-E (Franklin County)

   Starting line Beatty +17. 10.3% split their ticket.
   +71
4. 04
   Ua 5-E (Franklin County)

   Starting line Beatty +24. 13.0% split their ticket.
   +67
5. 05
   Bexley 1-B (Franklin County)

   Starting line Beatty +42. 12.2% split their ticket.
   +66
6. 06
   Ua 6-D (Franklin County)

   Starting line Beatty +14. 11.1% split their ticket.
   +63

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  12,053 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Beatty today.
  +12,053
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 384 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dulaney's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +19
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dulaney's way.
  +278

Plus a national shift of 34.5 points of margin (90,831 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Dulaney wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Beatty.
2. The national environment moves about 34.5 points toward Dulaney's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  544 precincts, R² 0.978, 99 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -122,027 to -59,978 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Dulaney no FEC totals reported; Beatty $2,776,821.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  17,447 households, 52,340 dials, about 2,743 live conversations: an estimated $6,918 at published rates.