Ohio · U.S. House · District 3 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Cleophus Dulaney.

Beatty starts 39.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 12,350 net votes toward Dulaney, a 4.7-point gain. Winning outright would take a 34.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Dulaney the one standing if one comes.

103,182

net votes between Dulaney and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

39.2 pts

Beatty lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Ohio races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find103,182

WhereNew Albany-F (Franklin County), New Albany-B (Franklin County), Cols 82-E (Franklin County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Beatty +39.2. Cleophus Dulaney needs 103,182 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

131,574 votes.

That is half of the 263,147 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Dulaney stands today, and what is missing:

78,673 Cleophus Dulaney baseline

181,854 Joyce Beatty baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate in 2024 and 2022, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Dulaney wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Dulaney short by 90,983.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

12K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 12,053

Who. 12,053 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Beatty today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Dulaney needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Beatty.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 384

Who. At least 384 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dulaney's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

278

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 795

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dulaney's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 12,350 net votes against a gap of 103,182. Still 90,832 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 34.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 6% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
New Albany-F (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +10. 14.3% split their ticket.
+76
02
New Albany-B (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +3. 15.1% split their ticket.
+74
03
Cols 82-E (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +17. 10.3% split their ticket.
+71
04
Ua 5-E (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +24. 13.0% split their ticket.
+67
05
Bexley 1-B (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +42. 12.2% split their ticket.
+66
06
Ua 6-D (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +14. 11.1% split their ticket.
+63
07
New Albany-D (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +4. 14.3% split their ticket.
+58
08
Cols 72-E (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +21. 14.2% split their ticket.
+57
09
Gah 4-E (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +17. 14.7% split their ticket.
+53
10
Westerville 4-A (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +10. 12.3% split their ticket.
+53
11
New Albany-A (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +17. 14.1% split their ticket.
+53
12
Minerva Park-A (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Beatty +40. 10.3% split their ticket.
+53

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

New Albany-F (Franklin County) carries the most.

New Albany-F (Franklin County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 76. It sits at Beatty +10 on our starting line, and 14.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

New Albany-B (Franklin County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, New Albany-B (Franklin County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 15.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 12,350 net votes. The gap is 103,182. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 4.7 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Dulaney's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 544
Slope: 0.970
R²: 0.978
Residual SD: 3.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 99

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Dulaney's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Dulaney, with Beatty, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 12,053 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 384 of them live where Dulaney is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 40.2 points; Brown carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 44.7 points; Ryan carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 43.5 points.

Dulaney wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Beatty.
The national environment moves about 34.5 points toward Dulaney's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,743 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 52,340 dials to 17,447 households, before the last ballot is cast.

17K

households on the target list

52K

dials across three attempts

2,743

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,918 at our published rates: 17,447 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Cleophus Dulaney (R)

A longtime Columbus resident and small business owner whose companies include two furniture businesses and a home flooring business, Cleophus Dulaney was born in Birmingham, Alabama.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Joyce Beatty (D)

U.S. representative for the 3rd District since 2013 and chair of the Congressional Black Caucus from 2021 to 2023; she served in the Ohio House from 1999 to 2008, including as minority leader, and was a senior vice president at Ohio State University. A Dayton native, she holds degrees from Central State University and Wright State University.

Cash on hand $2,776,821 and $1,201,451 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Beatty +39.2. Cleophus Dulaney needs 103,182 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Cleophus Dulaney win Ohio's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 12,350 net votes; the gap is 103,182. The rest would take a 34.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes Cleophus Dulaney needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: New Albany-F (Franklin County), New Albany-B (Franklin County), Cols 82-E (Franklin County), Ua 5-E (Franklin County), Bexley 1-B (Franklin County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Cleophus Dulaney need to persuade?

About 6,026 voters who lean Joyce Beatty today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 12,053 persuadable voters leaning Joyce Beatty.

When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.