Upset Brief · OH-04 · Joshua Kolasinski (D) vs. Jim Jordan (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.6-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
118,898
net votes to find
Jim Jordan won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct City 8 (Clark County)
    Starting line Kolasinski +62. 8.5% split their ticket. About 289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +87
  2. 02
    Dublin City 2 (Union County)
    Starting line Kolasinski +16. 14.8% split their ticket. About 458 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +85
  3. 03
    Precinct City 21 (Clark County)
    Starting line Jordan +17. 17.8% split their ticket.
    +72
  4. 04
    Precinct City 7 (Clark County)
    Starting line Kolasinski +60. 7.8% split their ticket. About 238 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +70
  5. 05
    Dublin City 1 (Union County)
    Starting line Jordan +6. 13.3% split their ticket.
    +70
  6. 06
    Precinct City 17 (Clark County)
    Starting line Kolasinski +12. 15.8% split their ticket. About 163 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +62

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    11,102 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jordan today.
    +11,102
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 3,375 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kolasinski's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +386
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kolasinski's way.
    +360

Plus a national shift of 37.6 points of margin (107,050 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Kolasinski wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jordan.
  2. In Precinct City 8 (Clark County) and Precinct City 7 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 37.6 points toward Kolasinski's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    612 precincts, R² 0.987, 106 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -140,717 to -73,680 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Kolasinski $465 cash on hand; Jordan $6,030,301.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    18,360 households, 55,079 dials, about 2,886 live conversations: an estimated $6,824 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,824 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.