Upset Brief · OH-04 · Joshua Kolasinski (D) vs. Jim Jordan (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.7-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
119,734
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct City 8 (Clark County)
    Starting line Kolasinski +62. 8.5% split their ticket. About 289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +87
  2. 02
    Dublin City 2 (Union County)
    Starting line Kolasinski +16. 14.8% split their ticket. About 372 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +87
  3. 03
    Precinct City 21 (Clark County)
    Starting line Jordan +17. 17.8% split their ticket.
    +72
  4. 04
    Precinct City 7 (Clark County)
    Starting line Kolasinski +60. 7.8% split their ticket. About 238 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +70
  5. 05
    Precinct City 17 (Clark County)
    Starting line Kolasinski +12. 15.8% split their ticket. About 163 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +62
  6. 06
    Jerome 3 (Union County)
    Starting line Kolasinski +1. 12.7% split their ticket.
    +58

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    11,159 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jordan today.
    +11,159
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 3,289 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kolasinski's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +382
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kolasinski's way.
    +363

Plus a national shift of 37.7 points of margin (107,831 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Kolasinski wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jordan.
  2. In Precinct City 8 (Clark County) and Precinct City 7 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 37.7 points toward Kolasinski's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    612 precincts, R² 0.987, 106 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -141,720 to -74,235 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Kolasinski $465 cash on hand; Jordan $6,030,301.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    18,384 households, 55,151 dials, about 2,890 live conversations: an estimated $6,833 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,833 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.