Ohio · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Joshua Kolasinski.

Jordan starts 41.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 11,904 net votes toward Kolasinski, a 4.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 37.7-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Kolasinski the one standing if one comes.

119,734

net votes between Kolasinski and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

41.8 pts

Jordan lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Ohio races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.7-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find119,734

WherePrecinct City 8 (Clark County), Dublin City 2 (Union County), Precinct City 21 (Clark County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Jordan +42.0. Joshua Kolasinski needs 119,709 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

143,150 votes.

That is half of the 286,299 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kolasinski stands today, and what is missing:

81,537 Joshua Kolasinski baseline

201,271 Jim Jordan baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate in 2024 and 2022, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Kolasinski wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Kolasinski short by 107,962.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

11K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 11,159

Who. 11,159 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jordan today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kolasinski needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Jordan.

Mobilize

382

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,289

Who. At least 3,289 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kolasinski's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

363

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,036

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kolasinski's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,904 net votes against a gap of 119,734. Still 107,830 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 37.7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 6% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct City 8 (Clark County)mobilize
Starting line Kolasinski +62. 8.5% split their ticket. About 289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+87
02
Dublin City 2 (Union County)persuade
Starting line Kolasinski +16. 14.8% split their ticket. About 372 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+87
03
Precinct City 21 (Clark County)persuade
Starting line Jordan +17. 17.8% split their ticket.
+72
04
Precinct City 7 (Clark County)mobilize
Starting line Kolasinski +60. 7.8% split their ticket. About 238 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+70
05
Precinct City 17 (Clark County)persuade
Starting line Kolasinski +12. 15.8% split their ticket. About 163 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+62
06
Jerome 3 (Union County)persuade
Starting line Kolasinski +1. 12.7% split their ticket.
+58
07
Precinct Delaware City 3-F (Delaware County)persuade
Starting line Kolasinski +4. 12.8% split their ticket.
+56
08
Precinct City 10 (Clark County)mobilize
Starting line Kolasinski +53. 11.1% split their ticket. About 166 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+53
09
Precinct City 9 (Clark County)mobilize
Starting line Kolasinski +50. 8.5% split their ticket. About 209 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+52
10
Precinct Concord G (Delaware County)persuade
Starting line Jordan +7. 12.3% split their ticket.
+48
11
Precinct City 22 (Clark County)persuade
Starting line Jordan +22. 11.6% split their ticket.
+48
12
Precinct Mfld 6 (Clark County)persuade
Starting line Jordan +32. 13.6% split their ticket.
+47

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct City 8 (Clark County) carries the most.

Precinct City 8 (Clark County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 87. It sits at Kolasinski +62 on our starting line, and 8.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct City 7 (Clark County) is a turnout race.

Kolasinski's side leads Precinct City 7 (Clark County) by about 60 points on our starting line, and it cast about 238 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 49 votes there.

Precinct City 21 (Clark County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct City 21 (Clark County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 17.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Jordan had $6.03 million in cash on hand to Kolasinski's $465. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kolasinski's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 612
Slope: 1.000
R²: 0.987
Residual SD: 3.0 pts
Crossover precincts: 106

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kolasinski's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kolasinski, with Jordan, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,159 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 3,289 of them live where Kolasinski is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 42.6 points; Moreno carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 34.2 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 38.6 points.

Kolasinski wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jordan.
In Precinct City 8 (Clark County) and Precinct City 7 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 37.7 points toward Kolasinski's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,890 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 55,151 dials to 18,384 households, before the last ballot is cast.

18K

households on the target list

55K

dials across three attempts

2,890

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,833 at our published rates: 18,384 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Joshua Kolasinski (D)

Owner of Flex Biomedical LLC, a central Ohio business that installs, tests and repairs medical equipment, and a Delaware resident since 2012; he holds an associate degree from Owens Community College and a bachelor's degree from Siena Heights University.

Cash on hand $465 and $12,868 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jim Jordan (R)

U.S. representative for the 4th District since 2007 and chair of the House Judiciary Committee since 2023; raised in Champaign County and a two-time NCAA wrestling champion at the University of Wisconsin, he served in the Ohio House (1995 to 2000) and Ohio Senate (2001 to 2006) and was the first chair of the House Freedom Caucus.

Cash on hand $6,030,301 and $4,774,322 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Tracey Tackett (I)

Assistant mayor of Springfield and a member of the Springfield City Commission, she has owned the Sip & Dipity Paint Bar studio for 12 years. A lifelong Springfield resident, she holds a bachelor's degree from Wittenberg University and a master's in public policy and leadership from Ohio State University.

Campaign site ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Jordan +42.0. Joshua Kolasinski needs 119,709 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Joshua Kolasinski win Ohio's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 11,904 net votes; the gap is 119,734. The rest would take a 37.7-point national shift.

Where are the votes Joshua Kolasinski needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct City 8 (Clark County), Dublin City 2 (Union County), Precinct City 21 (Clark County), Precinct City 7 (Clark County), Precinct City 17 (Clark County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Joshua Kolasinski need to persuade?

About 5,580 voters who lean Jim Jordan today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 11,159 persuadable voters leaning Jim Jordan.

When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.