What it would have taken for Joshua Kolasinski.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Jordan starts 41.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 11,848 net votes toward Kolasinski, a 4.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 37.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Kolasinski the one standing if one comes.
Jim Jordan won.
Joshua Kolasinski ran 8.6 points ahead of our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies, about 98.1% counted, so shares will shift. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.6-point national wave.
142,200 votes.
That is half of the 284,398 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kolasinski stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate in 2024 and 2022, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 11,102 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jordan today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kolasinski needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Jordan.
Who. At least 3,375 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kolasinski's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kolasinski's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 11,848 net votes against a gap of 118,898. Still 107,050 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 37.6 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 6% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+87Precinct City 8 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line Kolasinski +62. 8.5% split their ticket. About 289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+85Dublin City 2 (Union County)persuadeStarting line Kolasinski +16. 14.8% split their ticket. About 458 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+72Precinct City 21 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Jordan +17. 17.8% split their ticket.
- 04+70Precinct City 7 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line Kolasinski +60. 7.8% split their ticket. About 238 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+70Dublin City 1 (Union County)persuadeStarting line Jordan +6. 13.3% split their ticket.
- 06+62Precinct City 17 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Kolasinski +12. 15.8% split their ticket. About 163 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+56Precinct Delaware City 3-F (Delaware County)persuadeStarting line Kolasinski +4. 12.8% split their ticket.
- 08+53Precinct City 10 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line Kolasinski +53. 11.1% split their ticket. About 166 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+52Jerome 3 (Union County)persuadeStarting line Kolasinski +1. 12.7% split their ticket.
- 10+52Precinct City 9 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line Kolasinski +50. 8.5% split their ticket. About 209 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+48Precinct Concord G (Delaware County)persuadeStarting line Jordan +7. 12.3% split their ticket.
- 12+48Precinct City 22 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Jordan +22. 11.6% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct City 8 (Clark County) carries the most.
Precinct City 8 (Clark County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 87. It sits at Kolasinski +62 on our starting line, and 8.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct City 7 (Clark County) is a turnout target.
Kolasinski's side leads Precinct City 7 (Clark County) by about 60 points on our starting line, and it cast about 238 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 49 votes there.
Precinct City 21 (Clark County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct City 21 (Clark County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 17.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Jordan had $6.03 million in cash on hand to Kolasinski's under $1,000. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kolasinski's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 612
- Slope
- 1.000
- R²
- 0.987
- Residual SD
- 3.0 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 106
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kolasinski's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kolasinski, with Jordan, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,102 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 17 to 25Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 3,375 of them live where Kolasinski is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 42.6 points; Moreno carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 34.2 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 38.6 points.
- Kolasinski wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jordan.
- In Precinct City 8 (Clark County) and Precinct City 7 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 37.6 points toward Kolasinski's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
2,886 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 55,079 dials to 18,360 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,824 at our published rates: 18,360 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Joshua Kolasinski (D)
Owner of Flex Biomedical LLC, a central Ohio business that installs, tests and repairs medical equipment, and a Delaware resident since 2012; he holds an associate degree from Owens Community College and a bachelor's degree from Siena Heights University.
Cash on hand $465 and $12,868 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Jim Jordan (R)
U.S. representative for the 4th District since 2007 and chair of the House Judiciary Committee since 2023; raised in Champaign County and a two-time NCAA wrestling champion at the University of Wisconsin, he served in the Ohio House (1995 to 2000) and Ohio Senate (2001 to 2006) and was the first chair of the House Freedom Caucus.
Cash on hand $6,030,301 and $4,774,322 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Tracey Tackett (I)
Assistant mayor of Springfield and a member of the Springfield City Commission, she has owned the Sip & Dipity Paint Bar studio for 12 years. A lifelong Springfield resident, she holds a bachelor's degree from Wittenberg University and a master's in public policy and leadership from Ohio State University.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Joshua Kolasinski lost
Unofficial result: Joshua Kolasinski 31.3%, Jim Jordan 64.5%, a margin of 33.2 points. Our starting line had Jordan +41.8; Kolasinski ran ahead of that line by 8.6 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Jordan +42.0. Joshua Kolasinski needs 119,709 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Who won OH-04 in 2026?
Jim Jordan won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Joshua Kolasinski 31.3%, Jim Jordan 64.5%, a margin of 33.2 points. Our starting line had Jordan +41.8; Kolasinski ran ahead of that line by 8.6 points.
Can Joshua Kolasinski win Ohio's 4th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 11,848 net votes against a gap of 118,898; the rest would take a 37.6-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Joshua Kolasinski needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct City 8 (Clark County), Dublin City 2 (Union County), Precinct City 21 (Clark County), Precinct City 7 (Clark County), Dublin City 1 (Union County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Joshua Kolasinski need to persuade?
About 5,551 voters who lean Jim Jordan today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 11,102 persuadable voters leaning Jim Jordan.
When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?
In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Ohio Secretary of State, election results and data
- Ballotpedia, Redistricting in Ohio (the 2025 congressional plan)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Ohio's 4th congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Ohio's 4th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Joshua Kolasinski
- Ballotpedia: Tracey Tackett