Upset Brief · OH-06 · Elizabeth Kirtley (D) vs. Michael Rulli (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 26.1-point national wave.

0%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
85,821
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct Ygn3 F (Mahoning County)
    Starting line Kirtley +63. 11.7% split their ticket. About 165 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +72
  2. 02
    Precinct Bvt 5 (Mahoning County)
    Starting line Rulli +14. 20.9% split their ticket.
    +66
  3. 03
    Precinct Ygn2 E (Mahoning County)
    Starting line Kirtley +73. 16.9% split their ticket. About 141 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +66
  4. 04
    Precinct Pot 2 (Mahoning County)
    Starting line Rulli +27. 13.4% split their ticket.
    +63
  5. 05
    Precinct Ygn3 C (Mahoning County)
    Starting line Kirtley +73. 16.9% split their ticket. About 137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +62
  6. 06
    Precinct Ygn2 D (Mahoning County)
    Starting line Kirtley +58. 16.1% split their ticket. About 162 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +62

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    13,483 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rulli today.
    +13,483
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 6,855 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kirtley's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +965
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kirtley's way.
    +397

Plus a national shift of 26.1 points of margin (70,975 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Kirtley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rulli.
  2. In Precinct Ygn1 D (Mahoning County) and Precinct Ygn3 F (Mahoning County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 26.1 points toward Kirtley's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    657 precincts, R² 0.985, 110 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -102,706 to -39,208 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Kirtley $1,069 cash on hand; Rulli $269,711.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    24,120 households, 72,360 dials, about 3,792 live conversations: an estimated $8,365 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,365 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.