What it would take for Elizabeth Kirtley.
Rulli starts 31.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 14,845 net votes toward Kirtley, a 5.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 26.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Kirtley the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 26.1-point national wave.
135,764 votes.
That is half of the 271,526 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kirtley stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate in 2024 and 2022, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 13,483 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rulli today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kirtley needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Rulli.
Who. At least 6,855 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kirtley's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kirtley's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 14,845 net votes against a gap of 85,821. Still 70,976 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 26.1 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 5% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+72Precinct Ygn3 F (Mahoning County)mobilizeStarting line Kirtley +63. 11.7% split their ticket. About 165 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+66Precinct Bvt 5 (Mahoning County)persuadeStarting line Rulli +14. 20.9% split their ticket.
- 03+66Precinct Ygn2 E (Mahoning County)mobilizeStarting line Kirtley +73. 16.9% split their ticket. About 141 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+63Precinct Pot 2 (Mahoning County)persuadeStarting line Rulli +27. 13.4% split their ticket.
- 05+62Precinct Ygn3 C (Mahoning County)mobilizeStarting line Kirtley +73. 16.9% split their ticket. About 137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+62Precinct Ygn2 D (Mahoning County)mobilizeStarting line Kirtley +58. 16.1% split their ticket. About 162 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+61Precinct Bdm 24 (Mahoning County)persuadeStarting line Rulli +12. 18.9% split their ticket.
- 08+60Precinct Ygn2 B (Mahoning County)mobilizeStarting line Kirtley +76. 16.1% split their ticket. About 134 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+60Precinct Ygn1 D (Mahoning County)mobilizeStarting line Kirtley +80. 9.4% split their ticket. About 171 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+60Precinct Bdm 1 (Mahoning County)persuadeStarting line Rulli +8. 17.3% split their ticket.
- 11+59Precinct Ygn5 E (Mahoning County)persuadeStarting line Kirtley +17. 16.4% split their ticket. About 228 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+57Precinct Ygn3 D (Mahoning County)mobilizeStarting line Kirtley +70. 13.0% split their ticket. About 137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct Ygn3 F (Mahoning County) carries the most.
Precinct Ygn3 F (Mahoning County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 72. It sits at Kirtley +63 on our starting line, and 11.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct Ygn1 D (Mahoning County) is a turnout race.
Kirtley's side leads Precinct Ygn1 D (Mahoning County) by about 80 points on our starting line, and it cast about 171 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 47 votes there.
Precinct Bvt 5 (Mahoning County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct Bvt 5 (Mahoning County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 20.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Rulli had $270K in cash on hand to Kirtley's $1,069. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kirtley's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 657
- Slope
- 0.986
- R²
- 0.985
- Residual SD
- 3.3 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 110
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kirtley's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 6.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kirtley, with Rulli, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 13,483 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 17 to 25Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 6,855 of them live where Kirtley is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 34.6 points; Moreno carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 24.2 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 25.7 points.
- Kirtley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rulli.
- In Precinct Ygn1 D (Mahoning County) and Precinct Ygn3 F (Mahoning County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 26.1 points toward Kirtley's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
3,792 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 72,360 dials to 24,120 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,365 at our published rates: 24,120 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Elizabeth Kirtley (D)
A freelance writer who lives in New Philadelphia in Tuscarawas County (WOSU; Wikipedia).
Cash on hand $1,069 and $1,132 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Michael Rulli (R)
U.S. representative for the 6th District since June 2024 and a Salem resident; he served in the Ohio Senate for the 33rd District from 2019 to 2024 and has helped run Rulli Bros. Market, the Mahoning Valley grocery business his family founded more than 100 years ago. He holds a bachelor's degree from Emerson College.
Cash on hand $269,711 and $1,112,553 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Rulli +31.6. Elizabeth Kirtley needs 85,629 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Elizabeth Kirtley win Ohio's 6th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 14,845 net votes; the gap is 85,821. The rest would take a 26.1-point national shift.
Where are the votes Elizabeth Kirtley needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct Ygn3 F (Mahoning County), Precinct Bvt 5 (Mahoning County), Precinct Ygn2 E (Mahoning County), Precinct Pot 2 (Mahoning County), Precinct Ygn3 C (Mahoning County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Elizabeth Kirtley need to persuade?
About 6,742 voters who lean Michael Rulli today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 13,483 persuadable voters leaning Michael Rulli.
When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?
In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Ohio Secretary of State, election results and data
- Ballotpedia, Redistricting in Ohio (the 2025 congressional plan)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Ohio's 6th congressional district
- Wikipedia: Michael Rulli
- Ballotpedia: Ohio's 6th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Elizabeth Kirtley