Upset Brief · OH-07 · Max Miller (R) vs. Brian Poindexter (D)

Miller can win. The plan uses 76 percent of what history allows.

2%
odds today
53%
odds with the plan
32,755
net votes to find
Brian Poindexter won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Berea-03-A (Cuyahoga County)
    Starting line Poindexter +36. 11.9% split their ticket.
    +175
  2. 02
    Broadview Heights-04-A (Cuyahoga County)
    Starting line Miller +1. 12.5% split their ticket.
    +154
  3. 03
    Olmsted Township-00-G (Cuyahoga County)
    Starting line Poindexter +21. 12.8% split their ticket.
    +150
  4. 04
    Broadview Heights-02-D (Cuyahoga County)
    Starting line Poindexter +19. 11.9% split their ticket.
    +143
  5. 05
    Strongsville-01-D (Cuyahoga County)
    Starting line Poindexter +12. 16.6% split their ticket.
    +141
  6. 06
    Precinct Brunswick City 4-C (Medina County)
    Starting line Poindexter +6. 14.3% split their ticket.
    +135

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    42,873 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Poindexter, plus the 16 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +32,608
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 21,823 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Miller's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,384
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Miller's way.
    +401
What has to be true
  1. Miller wins 38 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Poindexter.
  2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 76 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
  3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    536 precincts, R² 0.984, 98 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -28,687 to 33,621 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Miller $1,379,132 cash on hand; Poindexter $312,290.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    54,767 households, 164,301 dials, about 8,609 live conversations: an estimated $14,908 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $14,908 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.