Ohio · U.S. House · District 7 · November 3, 2026

How Max Miller wins.

Poindexter starts 10.2 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Miller needs 32,755 net votes, and the math closes using 76 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Berea-03-A (Cuyahoga County), Broadview Heights-04-A (Cuyahoga County) and Olmsted Township-00-G (Cuyahoga County).

32,755

net votes between Miller and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

10.2 pts

Poindexter lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Miller can win. The math closes using 76 percent of what history allows.

Odds today2%

Odds with the plan53%

Net votes to find32,755

WhereBerea-03-A (Cuyahoga County), Broadview Heights-04-A (Cuyahoga County), Olmsted Township-00-G (Cuyahoga County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Poindexter +10.2. Max Miller needs 32,807 net votes. Odds 2% today, 53% with the plan.

The number

160,041 votes.

That is half of the 320,081 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Miller stands today, and what is missing:

142,016 Max Miller baseline

174,771 Brian Poindexter baseline

Starting line: Poindexter +10.2 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

2% today. 53% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Miller wins in

53%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves76%

The plan on this page sits at 76%. Median outcome at this setting: Miller by 1,422.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

33K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 42,873

Who. Ticket splitters and the 16 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 42,873 leaning Poindexter today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Miller needs to win 38 percent of the ones now leaning Poindexter.

Mobilize

1,384

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 21,823

Who. At least 21,823 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Miller's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

401

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,506

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Miller's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 34,393 net votes against a gap of 32,755. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 5% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Berea-03-A (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Poindexter +36. 11.9% split their ticket.
+175
02
Broadview Heights-04-A (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Miller +1. 12.5% split their ticket.
+154
03
Olmsted Township-00-G (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Poindexter +21. 12.8% split their ticket.
+150
04
Broadview Heights-02-D (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Poindexter +19. 11.9% split their ticket.
+143
05
Strongsville-01-D (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Poindexter +12. 16.6% split their ticket.
+141
06
Precinct Brunswick City 4-C (Medina County)persuade
Starting line Poindexter +6. 14.3% split their ticket.
+135
07
Strongsville-03-D (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Poindexter +7. 12.8% split their ticket.
+134
08
Strongsville-03-C (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Poindexter +16. 13.7% split their ticket.
+132
09
Precinct Medina City 4-B (Medina County)persuade
Starting line Poindexter +10. 12.8% split their ticket.
+132
10
Brecksville-00-G (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Poindexter +28. 11.2% split their ticket.
+131
11
Westlake-01-A (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Poindexter +26. 14.8% split their ticket.
+131
12
Strongsville-01-F (Cuyahoga County)persuade
Starting line Miller +6. 12.2% split their ticket.
+131

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Berea-03-A (Cuyahoga County) carries the most.

Berea-03-A (Cuyahoga County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 175. It sits at Poindexter +36 on our starting line, and 11.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Strongsville-01-D (Cuyahoga County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Strongsville-01-D (Cuyahoga County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 16.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Miller has the cash edge.

As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Miller had $1.38 million in cash on hand to Poindexter's $312K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Miller's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 536
Slope: 0.970
R²: 0.984
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 98

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Miller's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Miller, with Poindexter, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 32,608 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 21,823 of them live where Miller is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 11.0 points; Moreno carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 2.1 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 3.9 points.

Miller wins 38 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Poindexter.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 76 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

8,609 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 164,301 dials to 54,767 households, before the last ballot is cast.

55K

households on the target list

164K

dials across three attempts

8,609

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $14,908 at our published rates: 54,767 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog · incumbent

Max Miller (R)

U.S. representative for the 7th District since 2023 and a former White House aide in the first Trump administration; a Northeast Ohio native, Cleveland State University graduate and U.S. Marine Corps Reserve veteran.

Cash on hand $1,379,132 and $2,142,562 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

Brian Poindexter (D)

Union ironworker and apprenticeship instructor with Ironworkers Local 17 who serves on the Brook Park City Council; the son of a union machinist and the grandson of a union autoworker.

Cash on hand $312,290 and $603,156 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Andrey Joseph Martinichin (Wri)

Nurse running as an independent write-in candidate.

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Thahbia Asad (Wri)

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Poindexter +10.2. Max Miller needs 32,807 net votes. Odds 2% today, 53% with the plan.

Questions

Can Max Miller win Ohio's 7th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Max Miller needs 32,755 net votes, and recent Ohio results show about 45,219 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 76 percent of that.

Where are the votes Max Miller needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Berea-03-A (Cuyahoga County), Broadview Heights-04-A (Cuyahoga County), Olmsted Township-00-G (Cuyahoga County), Broadview Heights-02-D (Cuyahoga County), Strongsville-01-D (Cuyahoga County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Max Miller need to persuade?

About 16,304 voters who lean Brian Poindexter today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 38 percent of the 42,873 persuadable voters leaning Brian Poindexter.

When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.