Upset Brief · OH-08 · Vanessa Enoch (D) vs. Warren Davidson (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 11.4-point national wave.

1%
odds today
6%
odds with the plan
50,383
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Lincoln Hgts A (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Enoch +89. 6.7% split their ticket. About 289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +106
  2. 02
    Golf Manor B (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Enoch +73. 6.6% split their ticket. About 300 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +95
  3. 03
    Woodlawn B (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Enoch +73. 6.7% split their ticket. About 281 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +94
  4. 04
    Wyoming C (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Enoch +40. 11.8% split their ticket. About 220 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +90
  5. 05
    Forest Park C (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Enoch +70. 11.1% split their ticket. About 263 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +88
  6. 06
    Wyoming A (Hamilton County)
    Starting line Enoch +36. 11.0% split their ticket. About 214 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +85

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    12,932 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Davidson today.
    +12,932
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 24,922 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Enoch's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,116
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Enoch's way.
    +502

Plus a national shift of 11.4 points of margin (33,832 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Enoch wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Davidson.
  2. In Lincoln Hgts A (Hamilton County) and Golf Manor B (Hamilton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 11.4 points toward Enoch's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    601 precincts, R² 0.995, 83 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -69,365 to 1,647 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Enoch $2,987 cash on hand; Davidson $529,910.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    36,033 households, 108,099 dials, about 5,664 live conversations: an estimated $11,152 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $11,152 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.