Ohio · U.S. House · District 8 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Vanessa Enoch.

Davidson starts 16.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 16,550 net votes toward Enoch, a 5.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 11.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Enoch the one standing if one comes.

50,383

net votes between Enoch and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

16.9 pts

Davidson lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Ohio races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 11.4-point national wave.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan6%

Net votes to find50,383

WhereLincoln Hgts A (Hamilton County), Golf Manor B (Hamilton County), Woodlawn B (Hamilton County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Davidson +16.9. Vanessa Enoch needs 50,383 net votes. Odds 1% today, 6% with the plan.

The number

148,745 votes.

That is half of the 297,489 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Enoch stands today, and what is missing:

121,825 Vanessa Enoch baseline

172,208 Warren Davidson baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate in 2024 and 2022, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. 6% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Enoch wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Enoch short by 33,813.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

13K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 12,932

Who. 12,932 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Davidson today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Enoch needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Davidson.

Mobilize

3,116

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 24,922

Who. At least 24,922 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Enoch's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

502

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,435

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Enoch's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 16,550 net votes against a gap of 50,383. Still 33,833 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 11.4 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 6% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Lincoln Hgts A (Hamilton County)mobilize
Starting line Enoch +89. 6.7% split their ticket. About 289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+106
02
Golf Manor B (Hamilton County)mobilize
Starting line Enoch +73. 6.6% split their ticket. About 300 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+95
03
Woodlawn B (Hamilton County)mobilize
Starting line Enoch +73. 6.7% split their ticket. About 281 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+94
04
Wyoming C (Hamilton County)persuade
Starting line Enoch +40. 11.8% split their ticket. About 220 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+90
05
Forest Park C (Hamilton County)mobilize
Starting line Enoch +70. 11.1% split their ticket. About 263 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+88
06
Wyoming A (Hamilton County)persuade
Starting line Enoch +36. 11.0% split their ticket. About 214 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+85
07
Woodlawn A (Hamilton County)mobilize
Starting line Enoch +73. 8.9% split their ticket. About 213 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+81
08
Silverton B (Hamilton County)mobilize
Starting line Enoch +65. 6.7% split their ticket. About 241 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+80
09
Forest Park L (Hamilton County)mobilize
Starting line Enoch +61. 13.6% split their ticket. About 225 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+79
10
Wyoming D (Hamilton County)mobilize
Starting line Enoch +46. 8.8% split their ticket. About 248 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+78
11
Wyoming B (Hamilton County)persuade
Starting line Enoch +38. 9.6% split their ticket. About 204 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+77
12
Mariemont B (Hamilton County)persuade
Starting line Enoch +23. 12.0% split their ticket. About 234 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+74

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Lincoln Hgts A (Hamilton County) carries the most.

Lincoln Hgts A (Hamilton County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 106. It sits at Enoch +89 on our starting line, and 6.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Golf Manor B (Hamilton County) is a turnout race.

Enoch's side leads Golf Manor B (Hamilton County) by about 73 points on our starting line, and it cast about 300 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 75 votes there.

Forest Park L (Hamilton County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Forest Park L (Hamilton County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 13.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Davidson had $530K in cash on hand to Enoch's $2,987. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Enoch's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 601
Slope: 0.969
R²: 0.995
Residual SD: 2.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 83

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Enoch's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Enoch, with Davidson, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 12,932 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 24,922 of them live where Enoch is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 15.6 points; Moreno carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 9.7 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 14.7 points.

Enoch wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Davidson.
In Lincoln Hgts A (Hamilton County) and Golf Manor B (Hamilton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 11.4 points toward Enoch's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

5,664 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 108,099 dials to 36,033 households, before the last ballot is cast.

36K

households on the target list

108K

dials across three attempts

5,664

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $11,152 at our published rates: 36,033 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Vanessa Enoch (D)

A West Chester resident of more than 20 years who grew up in Colerain Township, she is president and CEO of Cultural Impact LLC, a management and technology consulting firm, and a journalist whose criminal justice reporting for The Cincinnati Herald placed second in the 2018 Ohio Society of Professional Journalists contest. She holds a bachelor's degree from Ohio State, an MBA from Xavier University and a doctorate in public policy from Union Institute & University.

Cash on hand $2,987 and $0 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Warren Davidson (R)

U.S. representative for the 8th District since 2016 and a Sidney native who lives in Troy; an Army veteran who enlisted in 1988, he graduated from West Point in 1995 and served in the 75th Ranger Regiment, the 101st Airborne Division and The Old Guard.

Cash on hand $529,910 and $661,353 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Davidson +16.9. Vanessa Enoch needs 50,383 net votes. Odds 1% today, 6% with the plan.

Questions

Can Vanessa Enoch win Ohio's 8th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 16,550 net votes; the gap is 50,383. The rest would take a 11.4-point national shift.

Where are the votes Vanessa Enoch needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Lincoln Hgts A (Hamilton County), Golf Manor B (Hamilton County), Woodlawn B (Hamilton County), Wyoming C (Hamilton County), Forest Park C (Hamilton County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Vanessa Enoch need to persuade?

About 6,466 voters who lean Warren Davidson today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 12,932 persuadable voters leaning Warren Davidson.

When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.