Upset Brief · OH-09 · Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Derek Merrin (R)

Kaptur gets within 7,329 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.7-point national shift finishes it.

6%
odds today
36%
odds with the plan
29,857
net votes to find
Marcy Kaptur won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County)
    Starting line Kaptur +85. 11.9% split their ticket. About 398 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +130
  2. 02
    Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County)
    Starting line Kaptur +88. 24.4% split their ticket. About 342 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +124
  3. 03
    Precinct Toledo 10F (Lucas County)
    Starting line Kaptur +73. 12.0% split their ticket. About 413 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +112
  4. 04
    Precinct Toledo 14A (Lucas County)
    Starting line Kaptur +84. 11.6% split their ticket. About 346 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +111
  5. 05
    Precinct Toledo 14B (Lucas County)
    Starting line Kaptur +85. 20.7% split their ticket. About 291 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +102
  6. 06
    Precinct Toledo 13A (Lucas County)
    Starting line Kaptur +86. 11.0% split their ticket. About 312 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +100

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    17,535 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Merrin today.
    +17,535
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 35,216 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kaptur's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,390
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kaptur's way.
    +603

Plus a national shift of 2.7 points of margin (7,329 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Kaptur wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Merrin.
  2. In Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County) and Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 2.7 points toward Kaptur's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    588 precincts, R² 0.991, 90 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -40,840 to 26,540 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Kaptur $3,491,668 cash on hand; Merrin $531,214.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    49,686 households, 149,059 dials, about 7,811 live conversations: an estimated $14,141 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $14,141 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.