How Marcy Kaptur won.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Merrin starts 10.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Kaptur within 7,329 votes; a 2.7-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County) and Precinct Toledo 10F (Lucas County).
Marcy Kaptur won.
Marcy Kaptur ran 16.2 points ahead of our starting line, and won.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies, about 98.1% counted, so shares will shift. Source · Second source
Kaptur gets within 7,329 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.7-point national shift finishes it.
137,896 votes.
That is half of the 275,791 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kaptur stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate in 2024 and 2022, Governor, Attorney General). Published 2026 polls for this race do not set this line. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
6% today. 36% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 17,535 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Merrin today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kaptur needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Merrin.
Who. At least 35,216 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kaptur's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kaptur's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 22,528 net votes against a gap of 29,857. Still 7,329 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 2.7 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 5% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+130Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County)mobilizeStarting line Kaptur +85. 11.9% split their ticket. About 398 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+124Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County)mobilizeStarting line Kaptur +88. 24.4% split their ticket. About 342 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+112Precinct Toledo 10F (Lucas County)mobilizeStarting line Kaptur +73. 12.0% split their ticket. About 413 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+111Precinct Toledo 14A (Lucas County)mobilizeStarting line Kaptur +84. 11.6% split their ticket. About 346 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+102Precinct Toledo 14B (Lucas County)mobilizeStarting line Kaptur +85. 20.7% split their ticket. About 291 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+100Precinct Toledo 13A (Lucas County)mobilizeStarting line Kaptur +86. 11.0% split their ticket. About 312 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+88Precinct Toledo 6C (Lucas County)mobilizeStarting line Kaptur +62. 11.4% split their ticket. About 300 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+85Precinct Toledo 5I (Lucas County)persuadeStarting line Kaptur +41. 14.5% split their ticket. About 173 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+84Precinct Toledo 6A (Lucas County)mobilizeStarting line Kaptur +72. 14.9% split their ticket. About 195 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+83Precinct Toledo 4F (Lucas County)mobilizeStarting line Kaptur +67. 8.7% split their ticket. About 335 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+82Precinct Monclova 11 (Lucas County)persuadeStarting line Merrin +1. 12.4% split their ticket.
- 12+81Precinct Toledo 10H (Lucas County)mobilizeStarting line Kaptur +74. 12.0% split their ticket. About 252 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County) carries the most.
Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 130. It sits at Kaptur +85 on our starting line, and 11.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County) is a turnout target.
Kaptur's side leads Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County) by about 88 points on our starting line, and it cast about 342 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 104 votes there.
Precinct Toledo 5I (Lucas County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct Toledo 5I (Lucas County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 14.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Kaptur has the cash edge.
As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Kaptur had $3.49 million in cash on hand to Merrin's $531K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kaptur's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 588
- Slope
- 0.988
- R²
- 0.991
- Residual SD
- 3.3 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 90
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kaptur's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kaptur, with Merrin, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 17,535 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 17 to 25Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 35,216 of them live where Kaptur is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 10.6 points; Moreno carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 3.3 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 3.9 points.
- Kaptur wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Merrin.
- In Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County) and Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 2.7 points toward Kaptur's side between now and November 3.
- Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.
7,811 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 149,059 dials to 49,686 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $14,141 at our published rates: 49,686 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Marcy Kaptur (D)
U.S. representative since 1983 and the longest-serving woman in congressional history (Roll Call); a Toledo native and former urban planner and Carter administration urban-affairs adviser, with degrees from the University of Wisconsin and the University of Michigan.
Cash on hand $3,491,668 and $4,303,416 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Derek Merrin (R)
Former Ohio state representative (2016 to 2024) and former mayor of Waterville who works as a real estate investor; he holds a bachelor's degree from the University of Toledo and an MPA from Bowling Green State University.
Cash on hand $531,214 and $1,245,127 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Kathy McKinstry (Wri)
Businesswoman running as a write-in candidate.
Cash on hand $0 and $0 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through March 31, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Marcy Kaptur won
Unofficial result: Marcy Kaptur 52.7%, Derek Merrin 47.3%, a margin of 5.4 points. Our starting line had Merrin +10.8; Kaptur ran ahead of that line by 16.2 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Merrin +4.3. Marcy Kaptur needs 11,850 net votes. Odds 20% today, 52% with the plan.
Questions
Who won OH-09 in 2026?
Marcy Kaptur won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Marcy Kaptur 52.7%, Derek Merrin 47.3%, a margin of 5.4 points. Our starting line had Merrin +10.8; Kaptur ran ahead of that line by 16.2 points.
Can Marcy Kaptur win Ohio's 9th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 22,528 net votes; the gap is 29,857. The rest would take a 2.7-point national shift.
Where are the votes Marcy Kaptur needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 10F (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 14A (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 14B (Lucas County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Marcy Kaptur need to persuade?
About 8,768 voters who lean Derek Merrin today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 17,535 persuadable voters leaning Derek Merrin.
When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?
In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Ohio Secretary of State, election results and data
- Ballotpedia, Redistricting in Ohio (the 2025 congressional plan)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: McLaughlin & Associates (2026-04-18 to 2026-04-20)