Ohio · U.S. House · District 9 · November 3, 2026

How Marcy Kaptur wins.

Merrin starts 10.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Kaptur within 7,319 votes; a 2.7-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County) and Precinct Toledo 10F (Lucas County).

29,871

net votes between Kaptur and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

10.8 pts

Merrin lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Kaptur gets within 7,319 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.7-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today6%

Odds with the plan36%

Net votes to find29,871

WherePrecinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 10F (Lucas County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Merrin +4.3. Marcy Kaptur needs 11,850 net votes. Odds 20% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

138,064 votes.

That is half of the 276,127 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kaptur stands today, and what is missing:

121,243 Marcy Kaptur baseline

151,115 Derek Merrin baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate in 2024 and 2022, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

6% today. 36% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Kaptur wins in

36%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Kaptur short by 7,053.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

18K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 17,559

Who. 17,559 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Merrin today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kaptur needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Merrin.

Mobilize

4,389

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 35,207

Who. At least 35,207 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kaptur's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

604

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,726

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kaptur's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 22,552 net votes against a gap of 29,871. Still 7,319 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 2.7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 5% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County)mobilize
Starting line Kaptur +85. 11.9% split their ticket. About 398 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+130
02
Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County)mobilize
Starting line Kaptur +88. 24.4% split their ticket. About 342 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+124
03
Precinct Toledo 10F (Lucas County)mobilize
Starting line Kaptur +73. 12.0% split their ticket. About 413 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+112
04
Precinct Toledo 14A (Lucas County)mobilize
Starting line Kaptur +84. 11.6% split their ticket. About 346 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+111
05
Precinct Toledo 14B (Lucas County)mobilize
Starting line Kaptur +85. 20.7% split their ticket. About 291 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+102
06
Precinct Toledo 13A (Lucas County)mobilize
Starting line Kaptur +86. 11.0% split their ticket. About 312 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+100
07
Precinct Toledo 6C (Lucas County)mobilize
Starting line Kaptur +62. 11.4% split their ticket. About 300 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+88
08
Precinct Toledo 5I (Lucas County)persuade
Starting line Kaptur +41. 14.5% split their ticket. About 173 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+85
09
Precinct Toledo 6A (Lucas County)mobilize
Starting line Kaptur +72. 14.9% split their ticket. About 195 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+84
10
Precinct Toledo 4F (Lucas County)mobilize
Starting line Kaptur +67. 8.7% split their ticket. About 335 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+83
11
Precinct Monclova 11 (Lucas County)persuade
Starting line Merrin +1. 12.4% split their ticket.
+82
12
Precinct Toledo 10H (Lucas County)mobilize
Starting line Kaptur +74. 12.0% split their ticket. About 252 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+81

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County) carries the most.

Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 130. It sits at Kaptur +85 on our starting line, and 11.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County) is a turnout race.

Kaptur's side leads Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County) by about 88 points on our starting line, and it cast about 342 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 104 votes there.

Kaptur has the cash edge.

As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Kaptur had $3.49 million in cash on hand to Merrin's $531K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kaptur's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 588
Slope: 0.988
R²: 0.991
Residual SD: 3.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 90

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kaptur's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kaptur, with Merrin, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 17,559 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 35,207 of them live where Kaptur is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 10.6 points; Moreno carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 3.3 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 3.9 points.

Kaptur wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Merrin.
In Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County) and Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 2.7 points toward Kaptur's side between now and November 3.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

7,815 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 149,146 dials to 49,715 households, before the last ballot is cast.

50K

households on the target list

149K

dials across three attempts

7,815

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $14,149 at our published rates: 49,715 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog · incumbent

Marcy Kaptur (D)

U.S. representative since 1983 and the longest-serving woman in congressional history (Roll Call); a Toledo native and former urban planner and Carter administration urban-affairs adviser, with degrees from the University of Wisconsin and the University of Michigan.

Cash on hand $3,491,668 and $4,303,416 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

Derek Merrin (R)

Former Ohio state representative (2016 to 2024) and former mayor of Waterville who works as a real estate investor; he holds a bachelor's degree from the University of Toledo and an MPA from Bowling Green State University.

Cash on hand $531,214 and $1,245,127 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Kathy McKinstry (Wri)

Businesswoman running as a write-in candidate (Politics1).

Cash on hand $0 and $0 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through March 31, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Merrin +4.3. Marcy Kaptur needs 11,850 net votes. Odds 20% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Marcy Kaptur win Ohio's 9th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 22,552 net votes; the gap is 29,871. The rest would take a 2.7-point national shift.

Where are the votes Marcy Kaptur needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 10F (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 14A (Lucas County), Precinct Toledo 14B (Lucas County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Marcy Kaptur need to persuade?

About 8,780 voters who lean Derek Merrin today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 17,559 persuadable voters leaning Derek Merrin.

When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.