Upset Brief · Ohio U.S. Senate · Jon Husted (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)

Husted can win. The plan uses 49 percent of what history allows.

17%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
198,324
net votes to find
Sherrod Brown won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Cuyahoga County
    Starting line Brown +46. 36,895 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 171,459 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +25,404
  2. 02
    Franklin County
    Starting line Brown +44. 35,029 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 179,357 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +15,475
  3. 03
    Lucas County
    Starting line Brown +27. 14,290 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 59,049 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +13,918
  4. 04
    Hamilton County
    Starting line Brown +28. 24,530 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 108,981 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +9,766
  5. 05
    Montgomery County
    Starting line Brown +14. 16,137 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 69,475 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +9,603
  6. 06
    Summit County
    Starting line Brown +23. 17,366 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 74,087 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +9,474

The top 12 counties carry 60% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    348,413 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Brown, plus the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +172,283
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 614,000 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Husted's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +31,871
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Husted's way.
    +4,085
What has to be true
  1. Husted wins 25 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Brown.
  2. In the precincts Husted's side carries in Hamilton County and Stark County, 17 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 49 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    8,933 precincts, R² 0.993, 1,614 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -345,934 to 371,484 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Husted $9,419,311 cash on hand; Brown $16,229,741.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    386,298 households, 1,158,893 dials, about 60,726 live conversations: an estimated $106,193 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $106,193 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.