Ohio · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

How Jon Husted wins.

Brown starts 4.7 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Husted needs 198,484 net votes, and the math closes using 49 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Cuyahoga County, Franklin County and Lucas County.

198,484

net votes between Husted and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.

4.7 pts

Brown lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Husted can win. The math closes using 49 percent of what history allows.

Odds today17%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find198,484

WhereCuyahoga County, Franklin County, Lucas County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Brown +4.7. Jon Husted needs 198,259 net votes. Odds 17% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

2,102,722 votes.

That is half of the 4,205,443 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Husted stands today, and what is missing:

1,979,287 Jon Husted baseline

2,177,772 Sherrod Brown baseline

Starting line: Brown +4.8 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

17% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Husted wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

17%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves49%

The plan on this page sits at 49%. Median outcome at this setting: Husted by 9,160.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

173K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 348,683

Who. Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 348,683 leaning Brown today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Husted needs to win 25 percent of the ones now leaning Brown.

Mobilize

32K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 611,381

Who. At least 611,381 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Husted's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

4,093

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 23,628

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Husted's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 208,409 net votes against a gap of 198,484. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 60% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Cuyahoga Countypersuade
Starting line Brown +46. 36,895 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 171,459 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+25,446
02
Franklin Countypersuade
Starting line Brown +44. 35,029 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 179,357 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+15,523
03
Lucas Countypersuade
Starting line Brown +27. 14,290 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 59,048 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+13,918
04
Hamilton Countypersuade
Starting line Brown +28. 24,530 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 108,981 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+9,765
05
Montgomery Countypersuade
Starting line Brown +14. 16,137 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 69,475 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+9,602
06
Summit Countypersuade
Starting line Brown +23. 17,366 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 74,087 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+9,510
07
Mahoning Countypersuade
Starting line Brown +6. 8,973 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 27,363 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+8,171
08
Lorain Countypersuade
Starting line Brown +12. 10,329 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 47,257 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,490
09
Trumbull Countypersuade
Starting line Brown +1. 7,453 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 24,240 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+6,782
10
Stark Countypersuade
Starting line Husted +6. 11,449 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 50,150 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+6,523
11
Lake Countypersuade
Starting line Brown +2. 8,505 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 34,322 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+6,119
12
Delaware Countypersuade
Starting line Brown +6. 8,799 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 33,797 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,651

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Cuyahoga County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Cuyahoga County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 25,446. It sits at Brown +46 on our starting line.

Hamilton County is a turnout race.

In the precincts Husted's side carries in Hamilton County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 782 votes in this plan.

The money is close.

As of June 30, 2026, Brown had $16.23 million in cash on hand to Husted's $9.42 million. A race this close on money is decided on voter contact.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Husted's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 8,933
Slope: 0.968
R²: 0.993
Residual SD: 3.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 1,614

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Husted's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Husted, with Brown, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 172,567 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 25
Bank the ballots
In-person early voting runs October 6 through November 1 at each county board of elections, and absentee ballots start going out October 6. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a 2025 law ended the postmark grace period. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 611,381 of them live where Husted is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark no longer counts. Applications must be received by October 27.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Ohio has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 11.2 points; Moreno carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 3.6 points; Vance carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 6.1 points.

Husted wins 25 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Brown.
In the precincts Husted's side carries in Hamilton County and Stark County, 17 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 49 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

60,717 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 1,158,721 dials to 386,240 households, before the last ballot is cast.

386K

households on the target list

1,159K

dials across three attempts

61K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $106,177 at our published rates: 386,240 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog · incumbent

Jon Husted (R)

U.S. senator since his January 2025 appointment, previously lieutenant governor of Ohio (2019 to 2025), Ohio secretary of state (2011 to 2019), state senator (2009 to 2011) and state representative (2001 to 2009), including four years as speaker of the Ohio House. He holds bachelor's and master's degrees from the University of Dayton and worked in economic development at the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce.

Cash on hand $9,419,311 and $14,355,364 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

Sherrod Brown (D)

Mansfield native who served as U.S. senator from Ohio (2007 to 2025), chairing the Senate Banking Committee, after serving in the U.S. House (1993 to 2007), as Ohio secretary of state (1983 to 1991) and in the Ohio House (1975 to 1983). He is a graduate of Yale University and Ohio State University.

Cash on hand $16,229,741 and $38,566,234 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Bill Redpath (L)

Findlay native and business valuation specialist with a 38-year career at BIA Advisory Services and Summit Ridge Group; he holds a BA from Indiana University, an MBA from the University of Chicago and CPA licenses in Ohio and Illinois. He chaired the Libertarian National Committee from 2006 to 2010 and is known in the party for leading ballot access drives.

Cash on hand $730 and $24,200 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Greg Levy (Ind)

Akron community organizer and U.S. Navy veteran who served four years working on aircraft at Naval Air Station Whidbey Island; he is running on a socialist, working-class platform in his first campaign.

Cash on hand $25,971 and $80,348 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Stephen Faris (Ind)

Single-issue write-in candidate campaigning to abolish abortion.

Cash on hand $156 and $2,082 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Anthony Holliman (Ind)

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Timothy Telymonde (Ind)

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Brown +4.7. Jon Husted needs 198,259 net votes. Odds 17% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Jon Husted win the U.S. Senate race in Ohio in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Jon Husted needs 198,484 net votes, and recent Ohio results show about 421,105 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 49 percent of that.

Where are the votes Jon Husted needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Cuyahoga County, Franklin County, Lucas County, Hamilton County, Montgomery County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Jon Husted need to persuade?

About 86,284 voters who lean Sherrod Brown today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 25 percent of the 348,683 persuadable voters leaning Sherrod Brown.

When does early voting start in Ohio in 2026?

In-person early voting in Ohio runs October 6 through November 1, 2026 at each county board of elections, with no excuse needed. The registration deadline is October 5, and absentee ballot applications must be received by October 27. Under a law signed in December 2025, absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks no longer count. Ohio does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Ohio Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.