A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.4-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 2804 (Multnomah County)

   Starting line Bonamici +69. 9.0% split their ticket.
   +284
2. 02
   Precinct 3304 (Multnomah County)

   Starting line Bonamici +71. 6.9% split their ticket.
   +235
3. 03
   Precinct 2805 (Multnomah County)

   Starting line Bonamici +70. 5.6% split their ticket.
   +212
4. 04
   Precinct 362 (Washington County)

   Starting line Bonamici +44. 6.4% split their ticket.
   +208
5. 05
   Precinct 340 (Washington County)

   Starting line Bonamici +11. 5.5% split their ticket.
   +207
6. 06
   Precinct 364 (Washington County)

   Starting line Bonamici +43. 9.6% split their ticket.
   +207

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  9,108 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bonamici today.
  +9,108
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 2,575 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kahl's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +197
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kahl's way.
  +1,693

Plus a national shift of 32.4 points of margin (105,462 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Kahl wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bonamici.
2. It would take a national shift of about 32.4 points toward Kahl's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  215 precincts, R² 0.996, 36 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -142,916 to -67,550 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Kahl $212 cash on hand; Bonamici $572,435.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  17,684 households, 53,053 dials, about 2,780 live conversations: an estimated $6,573 at published rates.