What it would take for Barbara Kahl.
Bonamici starts 35.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 10,998 net votes toward Kahl, a 3.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 32.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Kahl the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.4-point national wave.
162,746 votes.
That is half of the 325,490 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kahl stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 9,108 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bonamici today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kahl needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Bonamici.
Who. At least 2,575 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kahl's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kahl's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 10,998 net votes against a gap of 116,461. Still 105,463 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 32.4 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 22% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+284Precinct 2804 (Multnomah County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +69. 9.0% split their ticket.
- 02+235Precinct 3304 (Multnomah County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +71. 6.9% split their ticket.
- 03+212Precinct 2805 (Multnomah County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +70. 5.6% split their ticket.
- 04+208Precinct 362 (Washington County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +44. 6.4% split their ticket.
- 05+207Precinct 340 (Washington County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +11. 5.5% split their ticket.
- 06+207Precinct 364 (Washington County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +43. 9.6% split their ticket.
- 07+194Precinct 3302 (Multnomah County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +78. 6.0% split their ticket.
- 08+192Precinct 2801 (Multnomah County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +75. 5.8% split their ticket.
- 09+181Precinct 367 (Washington County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +42. 9.0% split their ticket.
- 10+181Precinct 2806 (Multnomah County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +76. 4.8% split their ticket.
- 11+177Precinct 365 (Washington County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +52. 7.6% split their ticket.
- 12+177Precinct 329 (Washington County)persuadeStarting line Bonamici +39. 4.5% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 2804 (Multnomah County) carries the most.
Precinct 2804 (Multnomah County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 284. It sits at Bonamici +69 on our starting line, and 9.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 364 (Washington County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 364 (Washington County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 9.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Bonamici had $572K in cash on hand to Kahl's under $1,000. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 10,998 net votes. The gap is 116,461. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 3.4 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kahl's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 215
- Slope
- 0.952
- R²
- 0.996
- Residual SD
- 2.1 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 36
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kahl's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 14.
- Now to October 13Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kahl, with Bonamici, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 14 to 20Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 9,108 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 21 to 27Bank the ballots
Counties mail every active voter a ballot from October 14 to 20. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
- October 28 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 2,575 of them live where Kahl is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and arrive by November 10; official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Oregon has no polling places: official drop sites and county elections offices stay open until 8 p.m. Oregon has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 13. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop site in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 37.5 points; Kotek carried the 2022 governor's race by 26.0 points; Wyden carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 36.5 points.
- Kahl wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bonamici.
- It would take a national shift of about 32.4 points toward Kahl's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
2,780 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 53,053 dials to 17,684 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,573 at our published rates: 17,684 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Barbara Kahl (R)
Veterinarian whose family has lived in Northwest Oregon for more than a century, with two decades in corporate accounting, finance and high-tech administration followed by two decades in veterinary medicine. An Oregon State University graduate (BS 2001, veterinary degree 2006), she was appointed a public member of the Oregon Department of Agriculture's CAFO Advisory Committee.
Cash on hand $212 and $4,466 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Suzanne Bonamici (D)
U.S. representative for the 1st District since 2012 and a former consumer protection attorney; she earlier served in the Oregon House and the Oregon Senate (2008 to 2011). She holds degrees from Lane Community College and the University of Oregon (BA, JD).
Cash on hand $572,435 and $816,770 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Bonamici +35.8. Barbara Kahl needs 115,455 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Can Barbara Kahl win Oregon's 1st Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 10,998 net votes against a gap of 116,461; the rest would take a 32.4-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Barbara Kahl needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 2804 (Multnomah County), Precinct 3304 (Multnomah County), Precinct 2805 (Multnomah County), Precinct 362 (Washington County), Precinct 340 (Washington County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Barbara Kahl need to persuade?
About 4,554 voters who lean Suzanne Bonamici today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 9,108 persuadable voters leaning Suzanne Bonamici.
When are ballots mailed in Oregon in 2026?
Oregon votes by mail. Counties mail a ballot to every active registered voter from October 14 to October 20, 2026. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. The registration deadline is October 13, and Oregon does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Oregon Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Oregon Secretary of State, election history and abstracts
- OpenElections, Oregon precinct returns (built from county reports)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)