The Political Group · Oregon 2026 · as of September 27, 2026

Where a dollar moves an Oregon race.

7 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall program
OR-06
David Russ vs. Andrea Salinas
23% → 42%+19 pts15,236$7,465
21,526 households
Brief ›
OR-04
Monique DeSpain vs. Val Hoyle
15% → 33%+18 pts24,794$9,763
30,330 households
Brief ›
Oregon U.S. Senate
David Brock Smith vs. Jeff Merkley
5% → 14%+9 pts226,833$44,748
162,779 households
Brief ›
OR-05
Patti Adair vs. Janelle Bynum
43% → 51%+8 pts4,370$3,881
8,239 households
Brief ›
OR-01
Barbara Kahl vs. Suzanne Bonamici
0% → 0%+0 pts116,461$6,573
17,684 households
Brief ›
OR-02
Chris Beck vs. Cliff Bentz
0% → 0%+0 pts103,541$7,047
18,959 households
Brief ›
OR-03
Loran Ayles vs. Maxine Dexter
0% → 0%+0 pts133,217$6,318
14,992 households
Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · OR-06 · David Russ (R) vs. Andrea Salinas (D) · incumbent

Russ gets within 4,143 votes on campaign work alone. A 1.4-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today23%
With the plan42%
Net votes to find15,236
Call program$7,465

Where

  1. Precinct 405 (Washington County) +244
    Starting line Salinas +29. 6.5% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 402 (Washington County) +219
    Starting line Salinas +20. 6.9% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 389 (Washington County) +205
    Starting line Salinas +34. 5.7% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 154 (Polk County) +188
    Starting line Russ +22. 5.5% split their ticket. About 791 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 342 (Marion County) +173
    Starting line Salinas +2. 5.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 19% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +8,620
    8,620 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Salinas today.
  • Mobilize +739
    At least 9,002 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Russ's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,734
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Russ's way.

Plus a 1.4-point national shift (4,143 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Russ wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Salinas.
  2. In Precinct 154 (Polk County) and Precinct 152 (Polk County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 1.4 points toward Russ's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    176 precincts, slope 0.927, R² 0.984, 38 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -39,609 to 31,129
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Russ $1,855 · Salinas $611,103
  • Call program
    21,526 households, 64,577 dials, about 3,384 live conversations and 1,154 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OR-04 · Monique DeSpain (R) vs. Val Hoyle (D) · incumbent

DeSpain gets within 10,328 votes on campaign work alone. A 3.0-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today15%
With the plan33%
Net votes to find24,794
Call program$9,763

Where

  1. Precinct 17 (Douglas County) +280
    Starting line DeSpain +42. 6.7% split their ticket. About 651 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 2676 (Lane County) +250
    Starting line DeSpain +12. 7.5% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 11 (Benton County) +248
    Starting line Hoyle +1. 7.1% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 05 (Douglas County) +239
    Starting line DeSpain +49. 7.3% split their ticket. About 322 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 08 (Douglas County) +239
    Starting line DeSpain +48. 7.1% split their ticket. About 555 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +10,015
    10,015 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hoyle today.
  • Mobilize +1,306
    At least 14,944 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where DeSpain's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +3,144
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean DeSpain's way.

Plus a 3-point national shift (10,328 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. DeSpain wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hoyle.
  2. In Precinct 17 (Douglas County) and Precinct 08 (Douglas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 3.0 points toward DeSpain's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    186 precincts, slope 0.970, R² 0.995, 37 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -51,023 to 29,984
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    DeSpain $387,695 · Hoyle $520,840
  • Call program
    30,330 households, 90,991 dials, about 4,768 live conversations and 1,626 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · Oregon U.S. Senate · David Brock Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.5-point national wave.

Odds today5%
With the plan14%
Net votes to find226,833
Call program$44,748

Where

  1. Multnomah County +9,520
    Starting line Merkley +59. 8,213 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 46,392 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  2. Clackamas County +9,172
    Starting line Merkley +5. 6,913 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 36,533 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. Washington County +9,075
    Starting line Merkley +29. 7,318 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 39,399 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  4. Lane County +6,774
    Starting line Merkley +21. 5,307 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 31,032 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  5. Marion County +5,428
    Starting line Brock Smith +6. 3,645 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 21,928 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 79% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +55,972
    55,972 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Merkley today.
  • Mobilize +8,588
    At least 81,190 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Brock Smith's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +14,972
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Brock Smith's way.

Plus a 7.5-point national shift (147,300 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Brock Smith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Merkley.
  2. In the precincts Brock Smith's side carries in Douglas County and Jackson County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 7.5 points toward Brock Smith's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    1,300 precincts, slope 0.969, R² 0.995, 223 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -374,500 to 83,001
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Smith $28,980 · Merkley $6,828,404
  • Call program
    162,779 households, 488,338 dials, about 25,589 live conversations and 8,726 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OR-05 · Patti Adair (R) vs. Janelle Bynum (D) · incumbent

Adair can win. The plan uses 28 percent of what history allows.

Odds today43%
With the plan51%
Net votes to find4,370
Call program$3,881

Where

  1. Precinct 604 (Clackamas County) +235
    Starting line Adair +8. 8.2% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 29 (Deschutes County) +203
    Starting line Adair +26. 7.6% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 156 (Clackamas County) +171
    Starting line Bynum +37. 8.5% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 35 (Deschutes County) +154
    Starting line Bynum +33. 8.1% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 158 (Clackamas County) +135
    Starting line Bynum +40. 7.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 38% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,147
    11,262 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bynum today.
  • Mobilize +490
    At least 17,494 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Adair's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +953
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Adair's way.

What has to be true

  1. Adair wins 14 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bynum.
  2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 28 percent of what recent Oregon results show is possible.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    243 precincts, slope 0.962, R² 0.989, 35 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -41,744 to 42,223
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Adair $135,365 · Bynum $2,715,860
  • Call program
    8,239 households, 24,716 dials, about 1,295 live conversations and 442 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OR-01 · Barbara Kahl (R) vs. Suzanne Bonamici (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.4-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find116,461
Call program$6,573

Where

  1. Precinct 2804 (Multnomah County) +284
    Starting line Bonamici +69. 9.0% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 3304 (Multnomah County) +235
    Starting line Bonamici +71. 6.9% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 2805 (Multnomah County) +212
    Starting line Bonamici +70. 5.6% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 362 (Washington County) +208
    Starting line Bonamici +44. 6.4% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 340 (Washington County) +207
    Starting line Bonamici +11. 5.5% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +9,108
    9,108 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bonamici today.
  • Mobilize +197
    At least 2,575 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kahl's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,693
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kahl's way.

Plus a 32.4-point national shift (105,462 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Kahl wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bonamici.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 32.4 points toward Kahl's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    215 precincts, slope 0.952, R² 0.996, 36 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -142,916 to -67,550
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Kahl $212 · Bonamici $572,435
  • Call program
    17,684 households, 53,053 dials, about 2,780 live conversations and 948 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OR-02 · Chris Beck (D) vs. Cliff Bentz (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 28.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find103,541
Call program$7,047

Where

  1. Precinct 39 (Deschutes County) +191
    Starting line Bentz +23. 7.0% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 002 (Jackson County) +168
    Starting line Beck +67. 1.9% split their ticket. About 490 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 025 (Jackson County) +155
    Starting line Beck +41. 4.4% split their ticket. About 566 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 02 (Josephine County) +148
    Starting line Bentz +36. 6.6% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 016 (Jackson County) +144
    Starting line even. 6.5% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 14% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +10,570
    10,570 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bentz today.
  • Mobilize +478
    At least 2,573 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Beck's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,318
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Beck's way.

Plus a 28.5-point national shift (91,176 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Beck wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bentz.
  2. In Precinct 002 (Jackson County) and Precinct 025 (Jackson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 28.5 points toward Beck's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    364 precincts, slope 1.010, R² 0.989, 68 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -128,227 to -53,383
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Beck $53,777 · Bentz $1,420,775
  • Call program
    18,959 households, 56,878 dials, about 2,980 live conversations and 1,016 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OR-03 · Loran Ayles (R) vs. Maxine Dexter (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 39.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find133,217
Call program$6,318

Where

  1. Precinct 5008 (Multnomah County) +207
    Starting line Ayles +5. 6.9% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 400 (Clackamas County) +205
    Starting line Ayles +26. 7.1% split their ticket. About 305 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 4905 (Multnomah County) +202
    Starting line Ayles +2. 5.6% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 108 (Clackamas County) +195
    Starting line Ayles +22. 5.4% split their ticket. About 777 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 5006 (Multnomah County) +194
    Starting line Dexter +6. 6.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,071
    7,071 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Dexter today.
  • Mobilize +188
    At least 2,538 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ayles's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,767
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ayles's way.

Plus a 39.5-point national shift (124,191 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Ayles wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Dexter.
  2. In Precinct 106 (Clackamas County) and Precinct 108 (Clackamas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 39.5 points toward Ayles's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    112 precincts, slope 1.033, R² 0.998, 23 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -160,953 to -87,695
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Ayles n/a · Dexter $173,687
  • Call program
    14,992 households, 44,977 dials, about 2,357 live conversations and 804 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.