Upset Brief · OR-02 · Chris Beck (D) vs. Cliff Bentz (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 28.5-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
103,541
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 39 (Deschutes County)
    Starting line Bentz +23. 7.0% split their ticket.
    +191
  2. 02
    Precinct 002 (Jackson County)
    Starting line Beck +67. 1.9% split their ticket. About 490 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +168
  3. 03
    Precinct 025 (Jackson County)
    Starting line Beck +41. 4.4% split their ticket. About 566 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +155
  4. 04
    Precinct 02 (Josephine County)
    Starting line Bentz +36. 6.6% split their ticket.
    +148
  5. 05
    Precinct 016 (Jackson County)
    Starting line even. 6.5% split their ticket.
    +144
  6. 06
    Precinct 015 (Jackson County)
    Starting line Beck +8. 6.7% split their ticket.
    +141

The top 12 precincts carry 14% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    10,570 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bentz today.
    +10,570
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 2,573 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Beck's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +478
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Beck's way.
    +1,318

Plus a national shift of 28.5 points of margin (91,176 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Beck wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bentz.
  2. In Precinct 002 (Jackson County) and Precinct 025 (Jackson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 28.5 points toward Beck's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    364 precincts, R² 0.989, 68 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -128,227 to -53,383 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Beck $53,777 cash on hand; Bentz $1,420,775.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    18,959 households, 56,878 dials, about 2,980 live conversations: an estimated $7,047 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,047 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Oregon races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.