Oregon · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Chris Beck.

Bentz starts 32.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 12,366 net votes toward Beck, a 3.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 28.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Beck the one standing if one comes.

103,541

net votes between Beck and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 14.

32.4 pts

Bentz lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Oregon races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 28.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find103,541

WherePrecinct 39 (Deschutes County), Precinct 002 (Jackson County), Precinct 025 (Jackson County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Bentz +32.4. Chris Beck needs 103,541 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

159,828 votes.

That is half of the 319,655 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Beck stands today, and what is missing:

102,309 Chris Beck baseline

205,850 Cliff Bentz baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Beck wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Beck short by 91,201.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

11K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 10,570

Who. 10,570 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bentz today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Beck needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Bentz.

Mobilize

478

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,573

Who. At least 2,573 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Beck's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,318

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,765

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Beck's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 12,366 net votes against a gap of 103,541. Still 91,175 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 28.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 14% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 39 (Deschutes County)persuade
Starting line Bentz +23. 7.0% split their ticket.
+191
02
Precinct 002 (Jackson County)mobilize
Starting line Beck +67. 1.9% split their ticket. About 490 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+168
03
Precinct 025 (Jackson County)mobilize
Starting line Beck +41. 4.4% split their ticket. About 566 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+155
04
Precinct 02 (Josephine County)persuade
Starting line Bentz +36. 6.6% split their ticket.
+148
05
Precinct 016 (Jackson County)persuade
Starting line even. 6.5% split their ticket.
+144
06
Precinct 015 (Jackson County)persuade
Starting line Beck +8. 6.7% split their ticket.
+141
07
Precinct 012 (Jackson County)persuade
Starting line Bentz +18. 8.4% split their ticket.
+141
08
Precinct 017 (Jackson County)persuade
Starting line Bentz +21. 6.8% split their ticket.
+137
09
Precinct 041 (Jackson County)persuade
Starting line Bentz +44. 6.5% split their ticket.
+133
10
Precinct 013 (Jackson County)persuade
Starting line Bentz +18. 7.2% split their ticket.
+132
11
Precinct 01 (Josephine County)persuade
Starting line Bentz +17. 7.2% split their ticket.
+131
12
Precinct 046 (Jackson County)mobilize
Starting line Beck +73. 2.1% split their ticket. About 307 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+130

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 39 (Deschutes County) carries the most.

Precinct 39 (Deschutes County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 191. It sits at Bentz +23 on our starting line, and 7.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 002 (Jackson County) is a turnout target.

Beck's side leads Precinct 002 (Jackson County) by about 67 points on our starting line, and it cast about 490 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 110 votes there.

Precinct 012 (Jackson County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 012 (Jackson County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 8.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Bentz had $1.42 million in cash on hand to Beck's $54K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Beck's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 364
Slope: 1.010
R²: 0.989
Residual SD: 3.2 pts
Crossover precincts: 68

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Beck's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 14.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Beck, with Bentz, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 20
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 10,570 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 21 to 27
Bank the ballots
Counties mail every active voter a ballot from October 14 to 20. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 2,573 of them live where Beck is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and arrive by November 10; official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Oregon has no polling places: official drop sites and county elections offices stay open until 8 p.m. Oregon has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 13. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop site in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 27.0 points; Drazan carried the 2022 governor's race by 36.5 points; Perkins carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 23.2 points.

Beck wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bentz.
In Precinct 002 (Jackson County) and Precinct 025 (Jackson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 28.5 points toward Beck's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,980 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 56,878 dials to 18,959 households, before the last ballot is cast.

19K

households on the target list

57K

dials across three attempts

2,980

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,047 at our published rates: 18,959 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Chris Beck (D)

Former Oregon state representative (1997 to 2003) and USDA rural policy advisor (2010 to 2016) who spent 14 years as a conservation professional with the Trust for Public Land and now serves as an OSCE international elections observer. He holds a BA from Brown University and an MPA from Harvard's Kennedy School.

Cash on hand $53,777 and $94,774 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Cliff Bentz (R)

U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2021 and the only Republican in Oregon's congressional delegation; he served in the Oregon Senate (2018 to 2020) and Oregon House (2008 to 2018). A water and business law attorney, farmer and rancher from Ontario, he holds a JD from Lewis and Clark College and a BS from Eastern Oregon.

Cash on hand $1,420,775 and $1,011,413 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Bentz +32.4. Chris Beck needs 103,541 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Chris Beck win Oregon's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 12,366 net votes against a gap of 103,541; the rest would take a 28.5-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Chris Beck needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 39 (Deschutes County), Precinct 002 (Jackson County), Precinct 025 (Jackson County), Precinct 02 (Josephine County), Precinct 016 (Jackson County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Chris Beck need to persuade?

About 5,285 voters who lean Cliff Bentz today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 10,570 persuadable voters leaning Cliff Bentz.

When are ballots mailed in Oregon in 2026?

Oregon votes by mail. Counties mail a ballot to every active registered voter from October 14 to October 20, 2026. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. The registration deadline is October 13, and Oregon does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Oregon Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.