Upset Brief · OR-03 · Loran Ayles (R) vs. Maxine Dexter (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 39.5-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
133,217
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 5008 (Multnomah County)
    Starting line Ayles +5. 6.9% split their ticket.
    +207
  2. 02
    Precinct 400 (Clackamas County)
    Starting line Ayles +26. 7.1% split their ticket. About 305 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +205
  3. 03
    Precinct 4905 (Multnomah County)
    Starting line Ayles +2. 5.6% split their ticket.
    +202
  4. 04
    Precinct 108 (Clackamas County)
    Starting line Ayles +22. 5.4% split their ticket. About 777 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +195
  5. 05
    Precinct 5006 (Multnomah County)
    Starting line Dexter +6. 6.7% split their ticket.
    +194
  6. 06
    Precinct 4908 (Multnomah County)
    Starting line Dexter +11. 6.3% split their ticket.
    +188

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,071 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Dexter today.
    +7,071
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 2,538 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ayles's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +188
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ayles's way.
    +1,767

Plus a national shift of 39.5 points of margin (124,191 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Ayles wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Dexter.
  2. In Precinct 106 (Clackamas County) and Precinct 108 (Clackamas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 39.5 points toward Ayles's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    112 precincts, R² 0.998, 23 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -160,953 to -87,695 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Ayles no FEC totals reported; Dexter $173,687.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    14,992 households, 44,977 dials, about 2,357 live conversations: an estimated $6,318 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,318 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Oregon races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.