Oregon · U.S. House · District 3 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Loran Ayles.

Dexter starts 42.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 9,026 net votes toward Ayles, a 2.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 39.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Ayles the one standing if one comes.

133,217

net votes between Ayles and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 14.

42.3 pts

Dexter lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Oregon races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 39.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find133,217

WherePrecinct 5008 (Multnomah County), Precinct 400 (Clackamas County), Precinct 4905 (Multnomah County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Dexter +42.3. Loran Ayles needs 133,217 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

157,336 votes.

That is half of the 314,670 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Ayles stands today, and what is missing:

81,461 Loran Ayles baseline

214,678 Maxine Dexter baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Ayles wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Ayles short by 124,335.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

7,071

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,071

Who. 7,071 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Dexter today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Ayles needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Dexter.

Mobilize

188

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,538

Who. At least 2,538 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ayles's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,767

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,048

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ayles's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 9,026 net votes against a gap of 133,217. Still 124,191 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 39.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 25% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 5008 (Multnomah County)persuade
Starting line Ayles +5. 6.9% split their ticket.
+207
02
Precinct 400 (Clackamas County)persuade
Starting line Ayles +26. 7.1% split their ticket. About 305 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+205
03
Precinct 4905 (Multnomah County)persuade
Starting line Ayles +2. 5.6% split their ticket.
+202
04
Precinct 108 (Clackamas County)persuade
Starting line Ayles +22. 5.4% split their ticket. About 777 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+195
05
Precinct 5006 (Multnomah County)persuade
Starting line Dexter +6. 6.7% split their ticket.
+194
06
Precinct 4908 (Multnomah County)persuade
Starting line Dexter +11. 6.3% split their ticket.
+188
07
Precinct 404 (Clackamas County)persuade
Starting line Ayles +34. 5.7% split their ticket.
+188
08
Precinct 4501 (Multnomah County)persuade
Starting line Dexter +79. 4.5% split their ticket.
+187
09
Precinct 4306 (Multnomah County)persuade
Starting line Dexter +82. 5.3% split their ticket.
+175
10
Precinct 4806 (Multnomah County)persuade
Starting line Dexter +17. 6.0% split their ticket.
+172
11
Precinct 106 (Clackamas County)mobilize
Starting line Ayles +34. 4.7% split their ticket. About 741 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+158
12
Precinct 5202 (Multnomah County)persuade
Starting line Ayles +13. 5.8% split their ticket.
+157

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 5008 (Multnomah County) carries the most.

Precinct 5008 (Multnomah County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 207. It sits at Ayles +5 on our starting line, and 6.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 106 (Clackamas County) is a turnout target.

Ayles's side leads Precinct 106 (Clackamas County) by about 34 points on our starting line, and it cast about 741 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 75 votes there.

Precinct 400 (Clackamas County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 400 (Clackamas County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 9,026 net votes. The gap is 133,217. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.9 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Ayles's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 112
Slope: 1.033
R²: 0.998
Residual SD: 1.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 23

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Ayles's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 14.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Ayles, with Dexter, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 20
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,071 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 21 to 27
Bank the ballots
Counties mail every active voter a ballot from October 14 to 20. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 2,538 of them live where Ayles is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and arrive by November 10; official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Oregon has no polling places: official drop sites and county elections offices stay open until 8 p.m. Oregon has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 13. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop site in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 45.6 points; Kotek carried the 2022 governor's race by 37.3 points; Wyden carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 46.4 points.

Ayles wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Dexter.
In Precinct 106 (Clackamas County) and Precinct 108 (Clackamas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 39.5 points toward Ayles's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,357 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 44,977 dials to 14,992 households, before the last ballot is cast.

15K

households on the target list

45K

dials across three attempts

2,357

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,318 at our published rates: 14,992 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Loran Ayles (R)

Heavy equipment operator from Hood River who won the 2026 Republican nomination unopposed.

FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Maxine Dexter (D)

U.S. representative for the 3rd District since 2025 and a pulmonary and critical care physician; she served in the Oregon House from 2020 to 2024. She holds a BA and MD from the University of Washington.

Cash on hand $173,687 and $1,038,514 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Dexter +42.3. Loran Ayles needs 133,217 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Loran Ayles win Oregon's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 9,026 net votes against a gap of 133,217; the rest would take a 39.5-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Loran Ayles needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 5008 (Multnomah County), Precinct 400 (Clackamas County), Precinct 4905 (Multnomah County), Precinct 108 (Clackamas County), Precinct 5006 (Multnomah County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Loran Ayles need to persuade?

About 3,536 voters who lean Maxine Dexter today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,071 persuadable voters leaning Maxine Dexter.

When are ballots mailed in Oregon in 2026?

Oregon votes by mail. Counties mail a ballot to every active registered voter from October 14 to October 20, 2026. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. The registration deadline is October 13, and Oregon does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Oregon Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.