Upset Brief · OR-04 · Monique DeSpain (R) vs. Val Hoyle (D), incumbent

DeSpain gets within 10,328 votes on campaign work alone. A 3.0-point national shift finishes it.

15%
odds today
33%
odds with the plan
24,794
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 17 (Douglas County)
    Starting line DeSpain +42. 6.7% split their ticket. About 651 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +280
  2. 02
    Precinct 2676 (Lane County)
    Starting line DeSpain +12. 7.5% split their ticket.
    +250
  3. 03
    Precinct 11 (Benton County)
    Starting line Hoyle +1. 7.1% split their ticket.
    +248
  4. 04
    Precinct 05 (Douglas County)
    Starting line DeSpain +49. 7.3% split their ticket. About 322 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +239
  5. 05
    Precinct 08 (Douglas County)
    Starting line DeSpain +48. 7.1% split their ticket. About 555 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +239
  6. 06
    Precinct 1670 (Lane County)
    Starting line Hoyle +9. 6.7% split their ticket.
    +239

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    10,015 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hoyle today.
    +10,015
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 14,944 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where DeSpain's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,306
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean DeSpain's way.
    +3,144

Plus a national shift of 3 points of margin (10,328 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. DeSpain wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hoyle.
  2. In Precinct 17 (Douglas County) and Precinct 08 (Douglas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 3.0 points toward DeSpain's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    186 precincts, R² 0.995, 37 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -51,023 to 29,984 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    DeSpain $387,695 cash on hand; Hoyle $520,840.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    30,330 households, 90,991 dials, about 4,768 live conversations: an estimated $9,763 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,763 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Oregon races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.