Oregon · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

How Monique DeSpain wins.

Hoyle starts 7.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets DeSpain within 10,328 votes; a 3.0-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Precinct 17 (Douglas County), Precinct 2676 (Lane County) and Precinct 11 (Benton County).

24,794

net votes between DeSpain and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 14.

7.2 pts

Hoyle lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Oregon races ranked ›

DeSpain gets within 10,328 votes on campaign work alone. A 3.0-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today15%

Odds with the plan33%

Net votes to find24,794

WherePrecinct 17 (Douglas County), Precinct 2676 (Lane County), Precinct 11 (Benton County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Hoyle +7.2. Monique DeSpain needs 24,794 net votes. Odds 15% today, 33% with the plan.

The number

171,807 votes.

That is half of the 343,612 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where DeSpain stands today, and what is missing:

149,672 Monique DeSpain baseline

174,466 Val Hoyle baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

15% today. 33% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

DeSpain wins in

33%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

15%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: DeSpain short by 10,513.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

10K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 10,015

Who. 10,015 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hoyle today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. DeSpain needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Hoyle.

Mobilize

1,306

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14,944

Who. At least 14,944 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where DeSpain's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

3,144

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 8,983

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean DeSpain's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 14,465 net votes against a gap of 24,794. Still 10,329 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 20% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 17 (Douglas County)persuade
Starting line DeSpain +42. 6.7% split their ticket. About 651 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+280
02
Precinct 2676 (Lane County)persuade
Starting line DeSpain +12. 7.5% split their ticket.
+250
03
Precinct 11 (Benton County)persuade
Starting line Hoyle +1. 7.1% split their ticket.
+248
04
Precinct 05 (Douglas County)persuade
Starting line DeSpain +49. 7.3% split their ticket. About 322 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+239
05
Precinct 08 (Douglas County)persuade
Starting line DeSpain +48. 7.1% split their ticket. About 555 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+239
06
Precinct 1670 (Lane County)persuade
Starting line Hoyle +9. 6.7% split their ticket.
+239
07
Precinct 747 (Lane County)persuade
Starting line DeSpain +24. 6.2% split their ticket. About 563 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+231
08
Precinct 1564 (Lane County)persuade
Starting line Hoyle +39. 7.2% split their ticket.
+226
09
Precinct 2562 (Lane County)persuade
Starting line DeSpain +1. 7.7% split their ticket.
+226
10
Precinct 04 (Douglas County)persuade
Starting line DeSpain +43. 5.8% split their ticket. About 430 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+223
11
Precinct 1450 (Lane County)persuade
Starting line Hoyle +31. 7.1% split their ticket.
+210
12
Precinct 4600 (Lane County)persuade
Starting line Hoyle +7. 6.0% split their ticket.
+209

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 17 (Douglas County) carries the most.

Precinct 17 (Douglas County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 280. It sits at DeSpain +42 on our starting line, and 6.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 08 (Douglas County) is a turnout target.

DeSpain's side leads Precinct 08 (Douglas County) by about 48 points on our starting line, and it cast about 555 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 81 votes there.

Precinct 2562 (Lane County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 2562 (Lane County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The money is close.

As of June 30, 2026, Hoyle had $521K in cash on hand to DeSpain's $388K. A race this close on money is decided on voter contact.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where DeSpain's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 186
Slope: 0.970
R²: 0.995
Residual SD: 2.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 37

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: DeSpain's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 14.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with DeSpain, with Hoyle, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 20
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 10,015 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 21 to 27
Bank the ballots
Counties mail every active voter a ballot from October 14 to 20. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 14,944 of them live where DeSpain is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and arrive by November 10; official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Oregon has no polling places: official drop sites and county elections offices stay open until 8 p.m. Oregon has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 13. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop site in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 12.0 points; Kotek carried the 2022 governor's race by 2.1 points; Wyden carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 13.8 points.

DeSpain wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hoyle.
In Precinct 17 (Douglas County) and Precinct 08 (Douglas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 3.0 points toward DeSpain's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

4,768 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 90,991 dials to 30,330 households, before the last ballot is cast.

30K

households on the target list

91K

dials across three attempts

4,768

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,763 at our published rates: 30,330 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Monique DeSpain (R)

Attorney and retired U.S. Air Force colonel who served 30 years, including as a JAG officer. She holds a JD from Willamette University, an MS in administration from Central Michigan University and a BS in psychology from the University of Utah.

Cash on hand $387,695 and $677,571 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Val Hoyle (D)

U.S. representative for the 4th District since 2023, previously Oregon labor commissioner (2019 to 2023) and state representative (2009 to 2017), including House majority leader from 2013 to 2015. She built a career in domestic and international sales and manufacturing distribution and holds a BA from Emmanuel College.

Cash on hand $520,840 and $1,222,922 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Justin Filip (G)

Eugene statistician and guest teacher who has served as secretary of the Pacific Green Party and co-chair of its Eugene chapter. A University of Oregon psychology graduate, he has volunteered with Egan Warming Centers and as a baseball coach.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Hoyle +7.2. Monique DeSpain needs 24,794 net votes. Odds 15% today, 33% with the plan.

Questions

Can Monique DeSpain win Oregon's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 14,465 net votes; the gap is 24,794. The rest would take a 3.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes Monique DeSpain needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 17 (Douglas County), Precinct 2676 (Lane County), Precinct 11 (Benton County), Precinct 05 (Douglas County), Precinct 08 (Douglas County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Monique DeSpain need to persuade?

About 5,008 voters who lean Val Hoyle today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 10,015 persuadable voters leaning Val Hoyle.

When are ballots mailed in Oregon in 2026?

Oregon votes by mail. Counties mail a ballot to every active registered voter from October 14 to October 20, 2026. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. The registration deadline is October 13, and Oregon does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Oregon Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.