Adair can win. The plan uses 28 percent of what history allows.

1. 01
   Precinct 604 (Clackamas County)

   Starting line Adair +8. 8.2% split their ticket.
   +235
2. 02
   Precinct 29 (Deschutes County)

   Starting line Adair +26. 7.6% split their ticket.
   +203
3. 03
   Precinct 156 (Clackamas County)

   Starting line Bynum +37. 8.5% split their ticket.
   +171
4. 04
   Precinct 35 (Deschutes County)

   Starting line Bynum +33. 8.1% split their ticket.
   +154
5. 05
   Precinct 158 (Clackamas County)

   Starting line Bynum +40. 7.4% split their ticket.
   +135
6. 06
   Precinct 47 (Deschutes County)

   Starting line Bynum +30. 10.3% split their ticket.
   +130

The top 12 precincts carry 38% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  11,262 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bynum today.
  +3,147
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 17,494 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Adair's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +490
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Adair's way.
  +953

1. Adair wins 14 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bynum.
2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 28 percent of what recent Oregon results show is possible.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  243 precincts, R² 0.989, 35 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -41,744 to 42,223 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Adair $135,365 cash on hand; Bynum $2,715,860.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  8,239 households, 24,716 dials, about 1,295 live conversations: an estimated $3,881 at published rates.