Oregon · U.S. House · District 5 · November 3, 2026

How Patti Adair wins.

Bynum starts 1.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Adair needs 4,370 net votes, and the plan uses 28 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 604 (Clackamas County), Precinct 29 (Deschutes County) and Precinct 156 (Clackamas County).

4,370

net votes between Adair and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 14.

1.2 pts

Bynum lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Oregon races ranked ›

Adair can win. The plan uses 28 percent of what history allows.

Odds today43%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find4,370

WherePrecinct 604 (Clackamas County), Precinct 29 (Deschutes County), Precinct 156 (Clackamas County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Bynum +1.2. Patti Adair needs 4,375 net votes. Odds 43% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

179,744 votes.

That is half of the 359,487 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Adair stands today, and what is missing:

167,876 Patti Adair baseline

172,247 Janelle Bynum baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

43% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Adair wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

43%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves28%

The plan on this page sits at 28%. Median outcome at this setting: Adair by 374.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,147

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 11,262

Who. 11,262 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bynum today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Adair needs to win 14 percent of the ones now leaning Bynum.

Mobilize

490

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 17,494

Who. At least 17,494 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Adair's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

953

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 9,743

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Adair's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,590 net votes against a gap of 4,370. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 38% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 604 (Clackamas County)persuade
Starting line Adair +8. 8.2% split their ticket.
+235
02
Precinct 29 (Deschutes County)persuade
Starting line Adair +26. 7.6% split their ticket.
+203
03
Precinct 156 (Clackamas County)persuade
Starting line Bynum +37. 8.5% split their ticket.
+171
04
Precinct 35 (Deschutes County)persuade
Starting line Bynum +33. 8.1% split their ticket.
+154
05
Precinct 158 (Clackamas County)persuade
Starting line Bynum +40. 7.4% split their ticket.
+135
06
Precinct 47 (Deschutes County)persuade
Starting line Bynum +30. 10.3% split their ticket.
+130
07
Precinct 33 (Deschutes County)persuade
Starting line Bynum +8. 8.6% split their ticket.
+129
08
Precinct 151 (Clackamas County)persuade
Starting line Bynum +32. 11.0% split their ticket.
+128
09
Precinct 124 (Clackamas County)persuade
Starting line Adair +19. 8.0% split their ticket.
+123
10
Precinct 155 (Clackamas County)persuade
Starting line Bynum +33. 10.0% split their ticket.
+117
11
Precinct 02 (Deschutes County)persuade
Starting line Bynum +8. 8.3% split their ticket.
+114
12
Precinct 321 (Clackamas County)persuade
Starting line Adair +7. 8.7% split their ticket.
+114

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 604 (Clackamas County) carries the most.

Precinct 604 (Clackamas County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 235. It sits at Adair +8 on our starting line, and 8.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 151 (Clackamas County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 151 (Clackamas County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 11.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Bynum had $2.72 million in cash on hand to Adair's $135K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Adair's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 243
Slope: 0.962
R²: 0.989
Residual SD: 3.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 35

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Adair's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 14.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Adair, with Bynum, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 20
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,147 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 21 to 27
Bank the ballots
Counties mail every active voter a ballot from October 14 to 20. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 17,494 of them live where Adair is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and arrive by November 10; official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Oregon has no polling places: official drop sites and county elections offices stay open until 8 p.m. Oregon has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 13. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop site in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 8.5 points; Drazan carried the 2022 governor's race by 4.7 points; Wyden carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 7.9 points.

Adair wins 14 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bynum.
No national wave is required. The plan uses 28 percent of what recent Oregon results show is possible.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,295 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 24,716 dials to 8,239 households, before the last ballot is cast.

8,239

households on the target list

25K

dials across three attempts

1,295

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,881 at our published rates: 8,239 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Patti Adair (R)

Deschutes County commissioner since 2019, accountant and small business owner who grew up on a beef farm in Heppner; she led the county's veterans' village program. She holds a BA in history from the University of Oregon and a BS in accounting from Central Washington University.

Cash on hand $135,365 and $423,922 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Janelle Bynum (D)

U.S. representative for the 5th District since 2025 and Oregon's first Black member of Congress, after serving in the Oregon House from 2017 to 2025. An electrical engineer and local business owner, she holds a BS from Florida A&M University and an MBA from the University of Michigan.

Cash on hand $2,715,860 and $3,760,212 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Andrea Townsend (G)

Portland artist and homeless services support specialist who has worked as a program analyst with Oregon Housing and Community Services and as an art instructor with Schools Uniting Neighborhoods and Portland Parks and Recreation.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Bynum +1.2. Patti Adair needs 4,375 net votes. Odds 43% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Patti Adair win Oregon's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Patti Adair needs 4,370 net votes, and recent Oregon results show about 16,424 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 28 percent of that.

Where are the votes Patti Adair needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 604 (Clackamas County), Precinct 29 (Deschutes County), Precinct 156 (Clackamas County), Precinct 35 (Deschutes County), Precinct 158 (Clackamas County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Patti Adair need to persuade?

About 1,574 voters who lean Janelle Bynum today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 14 percent of the 11,262 persuadable voters leaning Janelle Bynum.

When are ballots mailed in Oregon in 2026?

Oregon votes by mail. Counties mail a ballot to every active registered voter from October 14 to October 20, 2026. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. The registration deadline is October 13, and Oregon does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Oregon Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.