Upset Brief · OR-06 · David Russ (R) vs. Andrea Salinas (D), incumbent

Russ gets within 4,143 votes on campaign work alone. A 1.4-point national shift finishes it.

23%
odds today
42%
odds with the plan
15,236
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 405 (Washington County)
    Starting line Salinas +29. 6.5% split their ticket.
    +244
  2. 02
    Precinct 402 (Washington County)
    Starting line Salinas +20. 6.9% split their ticket.
    +219
  3. 03
    Precinct 389 (Washington County)
    Starting line Salinas +34. 5.7% split their ticket.
    +205
  4. 04
    Precinct 154 (Polk County)
    Starting line Russ +22. 5.5% split their ticket. About 791 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +188
  5. 05
    Precinct 342 (Marion County)
    Starting line Salinas +2. 5.6% split their ticket.
    +173
  6. 06
    Precinct 424 (Washington County)
    Starting line Salinas +5. 7.5% split their ticket.
    +169

The top 12 precincts carry 19% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    8,620 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Salinas today.
    +8,620
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 9,002 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Russ's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +739
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Russ's way.
    +1,734

Plus a national shift of 1.4 points of margin (4,143 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Russ wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Salinas.
  2. In Precinct 154 (Polk County) and Precinct 152 (Polk County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 1.4 points toward Russ's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    176 precincts, R² 0.984, 38 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -39,609 to 31,129 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Russ $1,855 cash on hand; Salinas $611,103.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    21,526 households, 64,577 dials, about 3,384 live conversations: an estimated $7,465 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,465 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Oregon races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.