Oregon · U.S. House · District 6 · November 3, 2026

How David Russ wins.

Salinas starts 5.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Russ within 4,143 votes; a 1.4-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Precinct 405 (Washington County), Precinct 402 (Washington County) and Precinct 389 (Washington County).

15,236

net votes between Russ and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 14.

5.0 pts

Salinas lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Oregon races ranked ›

Russ gets within 4,143 votes on campaign work alone. A 1.4-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today23%

Odds with the plan42%

Net votes to find15,236

WherePrecinct 405 (Washington County), Precinct 402 (Washington County), Precinct 389 (Washington County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Salinas +5.0. David Russ needs 15,261 net votes. Odds 23% today, 42% with the plan.

The number

153,229 votes.

That is half of the 306,457 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Russ stands today, and what is missing:

140,461 David Russ baseline

155,697 Andrea Salinas baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

23% today. 42% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Russ wins in

42%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

23%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Russ short by 4,078.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

8,620

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 8,620

Who. 8,620 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Salinas today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Russ needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Salinas.

Mobilize

739

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 9,002

Who. At least 9,002 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Russ's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,734

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,954

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Russ's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,093 net votes against a gap of 15,236. Still 4,143 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 1.4 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 19% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 405 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Salinas +29. 6.5% split their ticket.
+244
02
Precinct 402 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Salinas +20. 6.9% split their ticket.
+219
03
Precinct 389 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Salinas +34. 5.7% split their ticket.
+205
04
Precinct 154 (Polk County)persuade
Starting line Russ +22. 5.5% split their ticket. About 791 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+188
05
Precinct 342 (Marion County)persuade
Starting line Salinas +2. 5.6% split their ticket.
+173
06
Precinct 424 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Salinas +5. 7.5% split their ticket.
+169
07
Precinct 134 (Polk County)persuade
Starting line Salinas +2. 6.2% split their ticket.
+164
08
Precinct 3 (Yamhill County)persuade
Starting line Russ +8. 5.9% split their ticket.
+160
09
Precinct 152 (Polk County)persuade
Starting line Russ +38. 4.4% split their ticket. About 305 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+155
10
Precinct 403 (Marion County)persuade
Starting line Russ +16. 6.9% split their ticket. About 373 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+154
11
Precinct 201 (Clackamas County)persuade
Starting line Salinas +18. 7.8% split their ticket.
+153
12
Precinct 7 (Yamhill County)persuade
Starting line Russ +16. 6.4% split their ticket. About 388 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+151

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 405 (Washington County) carries the most.

Precinct 405 (Washington County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 244. It sits at Salinas +29 on our starting line, and 6.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 154 (Polk County) is a turnout target.

Russ's side leads Precinct 154 (Polk County) by about 22 points on our starting line, and it cast about 791 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 49 votes there.

Precinct 201 (Clackamas County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 201 (Clackamas County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Salinas had $611K in cash on hand to Russ's $1,855. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Russ's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 176
Slope: 0.927
R²: 0.984
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 38

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Russ's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 14.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Russ, with Salinas, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 20
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 8,620 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 21 to 27
Bank the ballots
Counties mail every active voter a ballot from October 14 to 20. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 9,002 of them live where Russ is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and arrive by November 10; official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Oregon has no polling places: official drop sites and county elections offices stay open until 8 p.m. Oregon has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 13. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop site in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 11.3 points; Drazan carried the 2022 governor's race by 1.9 points; Wyden carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 9.5 points.

Russ wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Salinas.
In Precinct 154 (Polk County) and Precinct 152 (Polk County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 1.4 points toward Russ's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,384 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 64,577 dials to 21,526 households, before the last ballot is cast.

22K

households on the target list

65K

dials across three attempts

3,384

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,465 at our published rates: 21,526 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

David Russ (R)

Accountant and accounting and real estate consultant who served as a Dundee city councilor and mayor, with a career spanning manufacturing, real estate, retail, sales and farming. He holds a bachelor's degree from Eastern Washington University.

Cash on hand $1,855 and $12,791 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Andrea Salinas (D)

U.S. representative for the 6th District since 2023 and one of the first two Latinas elected to Congress from Oregon; she served in the Oregon House from 2017 to 2023. An environmental and health care advocate, she holds a BA from the University of California, Berkeley.

Cash on hand $611,103 and $1,613,394 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Salinas +5.0. David Russ needs 15,261 net votes. Odds 23% today, 42% with the plan.

Questions

Can David Russ win Oregon's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 11,093 net votes; the gap is 15,236. The rest would take a 1.4-point national shift.

Where are the votes David Russ needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 405 (Washington County), Precinct 402 (Washington County), Precinct 389 (Washington County), Precinct 154 (Polk County), Precinct 342 (Marion County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does David Russ need to persuade?

About 4,310 voters who lean Andrea Salinas today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 8,620 persuadable voters leaning Andrea Salinas.

When are ballots mailed in Oregon in 2026?

Oregon votes by mail. Counties mail a ballot to every active registered voter from October 14 to October 20, 2026. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. The registration deadline is October 13, and Oregon does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Oregon Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.