Upset Brief · Oregon U.S. Senate · David Brock Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.5-point national wave.

5%
odds today
14%
odds with the plan
226,833
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 14
Where
  1. 01
    Multnomah County
    Starting line Merkley +59. 8,213 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 46,392 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +9,520
  2. 02
    Clackamas County
    Starting line Merkley +5. 6,913 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 36,533 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +9,172
  3. 03
    Washington County
    Starting line Merkley +29. 7,318 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 39,399 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +9,075
  4. 04
    Lane County
    Starting line Merkley +21. 5,307 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 31,032 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +6,774
  5. 05
    Marion County
    Starting line Brock Smith +6. 3,645 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 21,928 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +5,428
  6. 06
    Deschutes County
    Starting line Merkley +6. 3,716 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 18,164 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +4,945

The top 12 counties carry 79% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    55,972 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Merkley today.
    +55,972
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 81,190 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Brock Smith's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +8,588
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Brock Smith's way.
    +14,972

Plus a national shift of 7.5 points of margin (147,300 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Brock Smith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Merkley.
  2. In the precincts Brock Smith's side carries in Douglas County and Jackson County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 7.5 points toward Brock Smith's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    1,300 precincts, R² 0.995, 223 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -374,500 to 83,001 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Smith $28,980 cash on hand; Merkley $6,828,404.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    162,779 households, 488,338 dials, about 25,589 live conversations: an estimated $44,748 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $44,748 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Oregon races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.