Oregon · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

What it would take for David Brock Smith.

Merkley starts 11.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 79,532 net votes toward Brock Smith, a 4.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 7.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Brock Smith the one standing if one comes.

226,833

net votes between Brock Smith and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 14.

11.5 pts

Merkley lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Oregon races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.5-point national wave.

Odds today5%

Odds with the plan14%

Net votes to find226,833

WhereMultnomah County, Clackamas County, Washington County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Merkley +11.5. David Brock Smith needs 225,906 net votes. Odds 5% today, 14% with the plan.

The number

984,782 votes.

That is half of the 1,969,563 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Brock Smith stands today, and what is missing:

821,382 David Brock Smith baseline

1,048,215 Jeff Merkley baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this state (President, Secretary of State, Governor, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

5% today. 14% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Brock Smith wins in

14%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Brock Smith short by 147,218.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

56K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 55,972

Who. 55,972 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Merkley today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Brock Smith needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Merkley.

Mobilize

8,588

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 81,190

Who. At least 81,190 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Brock Smith's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

15K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 42,778

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Brock Smith's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 79,532 net votes against a gap of 226,833. Still 147,301 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 7.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 79% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Multnomah Countypersuade
Starting line Merkley +59. 8,213 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 46,392 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+9,520
02
Clackamas Countypersuade
Starting line Merkley +5. 6,913 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 36,533 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+9,172
03
Washington Countypersuade
Starting line Merkley +29. 7,318 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 39,399 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+9,075
04
Lane Countypersuade
Starting line Merkley +21. 5,307 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 31,032 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+6,774
05
Marion Countypersuade
Starting line Brock Smith +6. 3,645 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 21,928 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,428
06
Deschutes Countypersuade
Starting line Merkley +6. 3,716 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 18,164 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+4,945
07
Jackson Countypersuade
Starting line Brock Smith +9. 3,026 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 15,193 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+4,667
08
Douglas Countypersuade
Starting line Brock Smith +39. 1,792 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 7,723 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,270
09
Linn Countypersuade
Starting line Brock Smith +27. 1,676 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 10,280 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,038
10
Josephine Countypersuade
Starting line Brock Smith +30. 1,339 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 6,715 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,329
11
Klamath Countypersuade
Starting line Brock Smith +44. 1,146 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 6,045 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,190
12
Yamhill Countypersuade
Starting line Brock Smith +9. 1,382 persuadable voters leaning Merkley; 8,598 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,080

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Multnomah County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Multnomah County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 9,520. It sits at Merkley +59 on our starting line.

Douglas County is a turnout target.

In the precincts Brock Smith's side carries in Douglas County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 882 votes in this plan.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Merkley had $6.83 million in cash on hand to Brock Smith's $29K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 79,532 net votes. The gap is 226,833. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 4.0 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Brock Smith's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 1,300
Slope: 0.969
R²: 0.995
Residual SD: 2.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 223

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Brock Smith's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 14.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Brock Smith, with Merkley, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 20
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 55,972 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 21 to 27
Bank the ballots
Counties mail every active voter a ballot from October 14 to 20. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 81,190 of them live where Brock Smith is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and arrive by November 10; official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Oregon has no polling places: official drop sites and county elections offices stay open until 8 p.m. Oregon has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 13. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop site in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 14.3 points; Kotek carried the 2022 governor's race by 3.4 points; Wyden carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 14.9 points.

Brock Smith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Merkley.
In the precincts Brock Smith's side carries in Douglas County and Jackson County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 7.5 points toward Brock Smith's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

25,589 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 488,338 dials to 162,779 households, before the last ballot is cast.

163K

households on the target list

488K

dials across three attempts

26K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $44,748 at our published rates: 162,779 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

David Brock Smith (R)

State senator for Oregon's 1st District since 2023 and a Senate Republican deputy leader, after serving as state representative (2017 to 2023) and Curry County commissioner. A third-generation Southwest Oregonian and small business owner from Port Orford, he studied at Southwestern Oregon Community College and Southern Oregon University.

Cash on hand $28,980 and $120,760 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jeff Merkley (D)

U.S. senator since 2009 and ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee since 2025; he served in the Oregon House from 1999 to 2009, including as speaker from 2007 to 2009. A David Douglas High School graduate, he earlier worked for Habitat for Humanity and as a national security analyst.

Cash on hand $6,828,404 and $4,540,974 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Gary Dye (L)

Portland-born engineer who has worked as a chemical and measurement engineer in the natural gas industry and as a process engineer in oil refineries; he holds degrees from Pepperdine University and the University of California, Irvine.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Chris Henry (P)

Portland union truck driver and former UAW aircraft mechanic at Rockwell and McDonnell Douglas who has served as a shop steward and union organizer. He has served on the boards of the Oregon Consumer League, the Oregon Voter Rights Coalition and the Willamette Neighborhood Association.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Merkley +11.5. David Brock Smith needs 225,906 net votes. Odds 5% today, 14% with the plan.

Questions

Can David Brock Smith win the U.S. Senate race in Oregon in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 79,532 net votes; the gap is 226,833. The rest would take a 7.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes David Brock Smith needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Multnomah County, Clackamas County, Washington County, Lane County, Marion County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does David Brock Smith need to persuade?

About 27,986 voters who lean Jeff Merkley today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 55,972 persuadable voters leaning Jeff Merkley.

When are ballots mailed in Oregon in 2026?

Oregon votes by mail. Counties mail a ballot to every active registered voter from October 14 to October 20, 2026. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by November 10, and official drop sites close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. The registration deadline is October 13, and Oregon does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Oregon Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Oregon Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.