Upset Brief · SC-01 · Nancy Lacore (D) vs. Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.5-point national wave.

2%
odds today
7%
odds with the plan
41,373
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Mt. Pleasant 35 (Charleston County)
    Starting line Honeycutt +23. 10.3% split their ticket.
    +170
  2. 02
    Johns Island 2 (Charleston County)
    Starting line Honeycutt +5. 9.5% split their ticket.
    +164
  3. 03
    Johns Island 3A (Charleston County)
    Starting line Honeycutt +7. 10.0% split their ticket.
    +155
  4. 04
    Mt. Pleasant 33 (Charleston County)
    Starting line Honeycutt +31. 8.2% split their ticket.
    +123
  5. 05
    Mt. Pleasant 39 (Charleston County)
    Starting line Honeycutt +28. 7.9% split their ticket.
    +119
  6. 06
    Mt. Pleasant 15 (Charleston County)
    Starting line Honeycutt +2. 12.3% split their ticket.
    +103

The top 12 precincts carry 12% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    9,994 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Honeycutt today.
    +9,994
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 10,586 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Lacore's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +966
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Lacore's way.
    +376

Plus a national shift of 10.5 points of margin (30,036 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Lacore wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Honeycutt.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 10.5 points toward Lacore's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    375 precincts, R² 0.970, 50 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -63,189 to 3,454 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Lacore $412,020 cash on hand; Honeycutt $78,533.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    21,837 households, 65,512 dials, about 3,433 live conversations: an estimated $7,573 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,573 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All South Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official South Carolina Election Commission precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.